BayBlogger

Wish List

2010-10-25T08:26:00.001-07:00

Free airport wifi, like these other Florida airports:

Florida

Daytona Beach Airport - signal availability reported in Ticketing Area - Daytona Beach
Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport - all terminals - Ft. Lauderdale
Southwest Florida International Airport - Ft.Myers
Okaloosa Regional Airport - Fort Walton Beach
Gainesville Regional Airport - Gainesville
Jacksonville Airport - Jacksonville
Key West International - Key West
LaBelle Municipal Airport - LaBelle
Melbourne International Airport - Melbourne
Orlando International Airport - all public areas and the "Cell Phone" parking lot - Orlando
Palm Beach International - Palm Beach
Pensacola Gulf Coast Regional Airport - Pensacola
Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport - Sarasota
Tallahassee Airport - Tallahassee
Tampa International - main building and both satellite terminals - Tampa
Palm Beach International Airport - West Palm Beach

16 out of 20 have it - where's ECP??

in reference to:

"Free airport wifi, like these other Florida airports:"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

In Response to Re: Old airport to cost YOU $230 million!

2010-09-12T16:14:00.001-07:00

From the "airport boondoggle" NH forum:
The redevelopment of the Panama City-Bay County International Airport property will cause further stress on already constrained SR 390 (St. Andrews Blvd.). Improvements to 390 have been evaluated by FDOT District 3, with the estimated cost being $230,754,000."

It would be insane to 4-lane SR 390 (so they will probably do it!). For once, JOE's influence might save some money, since 390 does nothing for JOE. It is a reliever road for US 231-and-west-to-PCB, a route whose time is past. The thrust of development is now the SR 388 arc from US 231 to SR 79 and the future west-of-79 JOE-road.

As the old route withers, Leucadia will inherit the present capacity of 390 as it is freed up from traffic bound from 231 toward the south end of SR 79. From Lynn Haven, it is already a toss-up to choose 390/98 west vs. 77/388/79/98. With any congestion in the Hathaway bridge area, 77/388/79/98 is clearly faster.

in reference to:

"Re: Old airport to cost YOU $230 million!"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Letter to Editor - "Faux Green" - Fake Recycling Bins

2010-08-15T05:57:00.001-07:00

Couldn't have said it better myself. The fake recycling bins can join the serial wetland and storm water violations that attest to the cynicism of this board and management. The airport needs to quit representing itself as an environmental improvement - that was just a ploy to co-opt some opposition, and now its an embarassment.

The airport needs to proceed on its merits - environmental benefit is NOT one of them and never has been.

in reference to:

"Letter to Editor - "Faux Green" - Fake Recycling Bins posted at 8/15/2010 7:53 AM CDT"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

General aviation pilots say they are in limbo at old airport

2010-08-07T08:57:00.001-07:00

The irony is that FAA, the airport and its consultants declared repeatedly that both airports could not operate simultaneously, despite many contrary examples such as Okaloosa county (two civil airports and numerous military airports).

Why did the "leadership" take the negative fear-mongering approach instead of just going out and building a better airline airport for much less money, leaving an irreplaceable community airport in place? Panama City is now the only sizeable city in Florida without a paved/instrumented community airport within 10 miles.

in reference to:

"General aviation pilots say they are in limbo at old airport"
- GA pilots say they're in limbo at old airport | say, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New DEP Fines for ECP

2010-08-04T14:02:00.001-07:00

Just can't get this green project finished without serial violations...

in reference to:

"DEP levies new fines against airport board"
- DEP levies new fines | west, bay, dep - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Congratulations ECP

2010-07-29T07:21:00.001-07:00

Southwest has made a huge impact and is definitely the "secret sauce". I am more surprised to see Delta respond vigorously and also do well. This is impressive traffic in a weak economy, and I'll have serving of that crow. It does not excuse the waste and abuse of resources that are still occurring, but strong revenues can overcome a lot of problems.

The next big test is autumn and winter. When Delta had more service here circa 1995, it did great in the summer and very weak in winter for an overall 55 percent load factor. Delta has the option to reduce service in the winter as usual, but Southwest's deal with St Joe is for 4 nonstop destinations and 2 departures to each daily. Not sure how much flexibility in that, but right now they are on a roll and congrats are in order.

in reference to: Airport numbers soar | airport, bay, numbers - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Amazing June Traffic

2010-07-28T07:27:00.001-07:00

I hope everyone will click to view the passenger activity report on the nearby link. It is, frankly, amazing. Year over year, triple the seats AND triple the passengers. I'm not surprised Southwest is 80% full on a new service, but am surprised Delta held 78%, and most surprised the lousy economy can produce this much traffic. The airport should quickly try to learn the origins and destinations (particularly the regional origins) of these passengers. It will take significant effort to hold them in the winter.

On the construction side, revenues will cure a lot of problems and there probably will be enough money to settle with Finch and the DEP. The creeks, however, can't use money - they are on their own.
in reference to: Finch: Airport owes me $10 million in back pay | west, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Getting over myself

2010-06-13T06:32:00.001-07:00

737,
You've got me on Southwest; I was shocked they took this deal (and more shocked that St Joe offered it) and I'm trying to stay out of it until they go through a winter here. Delta tried it for several years and never could get either the winter or east-west routes to work. I am sure I was right on the fundamentals, but didn't foresee a big subsidy. I have also been surprised that Delta has responded pretty well on price and larger planes. There is always a larger market at lower prices, but ECP is starting from a very modest base and it remains to be seen if all the new seats will be profitable.

Re: Finch
Phoenix (and the tiers of consultants) are in the end independent contractors. If the Owner of the project does not manage its contractors, then the contractors will manage as they see fit, and the result is what you see here. Several of the board members are friends or acquantances of mine, and I urged them years ago to hire a "gunslinger" to run a tight ship if they were going to do this.

Re: Sandy Creek
Sandy Creek is short, not instrumented, has no facilities for sophisticated airplanes, and is in the shadow of Tyndall's conventional and drone operations. It is not viable for any but rudimentary recreational pilots. The obvious plan for ECP was the "Ft Myers model" of building a 1-runway airline-centric airport (hopefully in a better location and using better practices) and keeping PFN for its unique value as a large GA airport like Page Field in Ft Myers. Instead they gave PFN away for less than the cost to replace its GA facilities. The only reason I ever saw for this was that consultant Bechtel wanted the largest possible project (and fees).

RE: Getting Over
My interest in this was originally professional curiosity, but after a while it got so curious that I received a broad education in corporate welfare, political intrigue, greed and regulatory capture. I never wanted to kill it but I thought it could be done a lot better and the only way to be heard was in the legal process. It is not personal with me, and I hope it is successful, whatever that means. It cannot fail aviation-wise because the State of Florida is on the hook and it has started with a gift of all previous aviation development in the county. As for the enviro objectives, they are just window dressing and cannot possibly be realized (develop 4000 acres of swamp/scrub pine + surroundings + re-develop 700 acres of waterfront/marina with a "net enviromental benefit"?).

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

My comment on FBO failure to launch

2010-06-04T14:17:00.001-07:00

In Response to Re: Airport loses a key business:
Omen of more pullouts to come? The print version today includes a story about how the airport is losing a key industry planned for the new airport--the fixed-base operation (FBO).
Posted by asterisque

"Regency " was the new FBO, but the incumbent FBO "Sheltair" is still stumbling through a start-up with no facilities. A friend says they expect to lose money for 5 years even with a monopoly.

Meanwhile, remnants of general aviation continue operating at PFN, despite the repeated testimony that two civil airports could not safely operate in Bay County. That was before this brain trust failed to complete ECP for general aviation. Oh well, they will (eventually) have hurricane spec hangars to store their planes in crosswinds.

These board guys could never understand that GA is not just "recreation for the rich", it supports many businesses and public needs such as organ transplants, air ambulances, and transient military light aircraft. Panama City is now the largest city in Florida with no instrumented community airport.
"No evidence of _" is not the same as "Evidence of no _" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)

http://donaldhodges.com (Don Hodges: BayBlog)

in reference to:

"Re: Airport loses a key business"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Airport to spend $5 million for stormwater fix

2010-06-04T07:04:00.001-07:00

The airport board fulfilled my prediction they will add $5 - $10 million to the Finch contract before "settling" all construction issues in a year or two. NOBODY will ever testify under oath, but it will be another windfall for lawyers and "mediators".

Party on...

in reference to:

"Airport to spend $5 million for stormwater fix"
- Airport to spend $5 million for stormwater fix | west, airport, fix - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New FBO at airport might fall through

2010-06-04T06:47:00.001-07:00

June 4, 2010
Well, that didn't take long - investors have pulled the plug on the "Regency" FBO, leaving Sheltair as the sole FBO (to open "real soon now"). This has been Sheltair's plan all along and the Airport Board has supported it with financing and eminent domain condemnation of the sole compettitor, Precision.

in reference to: Freedom - Panama City, Friday, June 04, 2010 - ActivePaper Daily by Olive Software (view on Google Sidewiki)

Regency FBO

2010-05-17T12:02:00.001-07:00

I would place a small wager that Regency won't build.

in reference to: Discussions On-Going With Fixed-Base Operator — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Southwest Bookings "Stronger than Expected"

2010-05-14T08:39:00.000-07:00

http://newpcairport.com/2010/05/southwest-bookings-ahead-of-expectations/

On Contract Wrangling - Its Profitable

2010-05-04T11:29:00.001-07:00

In a private contract, SOMEBODY ultimately is accountable. In a public contract like this, EVERYBODY is served by wrangling on and on. There is still much more money to be made by lawyers, arbitrators, consultants, etc. and the board will ultimately pay everybody off because 1) they don't want all the dirty laundry in court and 2) IT'S NOT THEIR MONEY. The only risk to the board is their reputation and that is OK with all the Chamber types. They could care less about "spectators" even if we embarrass them occasionally.

We are nowhere near the bottom yet - order some more ink, Caz.

in reference to:

"Airport Authority sticks with Finch"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

News Herald: Airport Grand Jury?

2010-05-03T07:24:00.001-07:00

THAT would sell some papers.

in reference to:

"The Airport Authority last week was backed into a corner"
- Rough landing - EDITORIAL - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

It Will Be An Airport City

2010-04-30T13:47:00.001-07:00

Archiving another big-puffery claim for the airport...

in reference to:

"“It will be an airport city,” says airport director Randy Curtis."
- Florida Trend Touts Economic Potential of New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

More Misinformation - FOX Business News

2010-04-19T07:50:00.001-07:00

The host on the video says the present airport (which is as long as Chicago-Midway) can't handle a 737, and Dan Rowe agrees that 737's can't be fully loaded, both false. Southwest 737's can easily operate to the 4 destinations being offered from 6300 ft. The new service is a huge win but boosters are never satisfied with the truth, they seem to have to bash our existing communities.

in reference to: Fox Business News Reports on New Florida Beaches International Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Why design an Airport for 50 Years?

2010-04-15T06:49:00.001-07:00

Question for Mr. Willett: Why would you design an airport for 50 years? Many have been in place since the beginning of aviation, about 100 years, and locally Tyndall and Eglin are passing 70 years. I have said (and written to these consultants) repeatedly that the plans should be for 100 years. Even the estimable St. Joe Company says 50 years is just the beginning.

in reference to:

"Officials differ on airport rock impact"
- Officials differ on airport rock impact | rock, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

St. Joe Contributes Again

2010-04-14T07:11:00.001-07:00

St. Joe makes another contribution - an unforgettable name for east West Bay.

in reference to:

"St. Joe names commercial property at new airport"
- St. Joe names commercial property at new airport | property, airport, commercial - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

"We've got a Mess Here"

2010-04-14T07:06:00.001-07:00

Just archiving the latest fiasco - off-spec materials.

in reference to:

"'We've got a mess here'"
- Airport board learns of new problems | problems, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

SW Effect has to be HUGE to Orlando and Houston

2010-04-13T16:38:00.001-07:00

I'm trying to bite my tongue about Southwest, but I truly don't understand how they break even to/from Orlando and Houston (I think they will do OK with Nashville and Baltimore because of substantial "beyond" connections). Today, Delta (the only airline in town) carries an average of FIVE passengers to Houston daily through Atlanta, and EIGHT daily to Orlando through Atlanta. On May 23, SW will offer 278 seats to each city daily. Where do the extra 270 per day - 100,000 per year! - come from?

in reference to:

"I'm trying to bite my tongue about Southwest, but I truly don't understand how they break even to/from Orlando and Houston (I think they will do OK with Nashville and Baltimore because of substantial "beyond" connections). Today, Delta (the only airline in town) carries an average of FIVE passengers to Houston daily through Atlanta, and EIGHT daily to Orlando through Atlanta. On May 23, SW will offer 278 seats to each city daily. Where do the extra 270 per day - 100,000 per year! - come from?"
- Airport shifts from dream to reality - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

St Joe and New Targets

2010-04-13T05:26:00.001-07:00

Another puff piece - notice the "target industries" keep changing?

in reference to:

"St. Joe Company Invested in Success of New Airport"
- St. Joe Company Invested in Success of New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

archiving this Link

2010-04-12T16:11:00.001-07:00

Archiving this link...

in reference to: News Herald Editorial Contemplates Impact of New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

ECP channels "Acopolypse Now"

2010-04-11T15:43:00.001-07:00

As Mark Twain said, "never argue with a man who buys ink by the barrel", but I'll never learn I guess. I am archiving these articles at donhodges.blogspot.com ; in a year or so we'll get back together to review the outcome. As I have said from the beginning, I will be happy to be proven wrong (already wrong once when JOE actually put some money in the pot for Southwest - that's ordinarily against their religion).

Caz, you need to read the DEP Consent Orders keeping in mind that the last thing DEP wants is to impede this project. To incur $2.5Million in fines from this captive agency takes some egregious violations. Just for starters I'll bet you a cold one you can't find a station that recorded 20 inches of rain in April 2009. This was not a failure of methods - there were NO methods in place until DEP was embarrassed into doing PART of their job. Nevertheless, when time got short DEP relaxed the limits to allow draining the quivering ponds. How can they do this? - By inviting a professional engineer to certify the quivering ponds were life-threatening! (I'm not making this up). And of course they found an engineer to certify that for a fee.

It's like "Acopolypse Now":

Col. Kurtz: Are my methods unsound?
Capt. Willard: I don't see any methods, sir.

in reference to: Airport shifts from dream to reality - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Archiving Caz on ECP

2010-04-10T22:07:00.001-07:00

For future reference and follow up.

in reference to:

"CAZ: Airport shifts from dream to reality"
- Airport shifts from dream to reality - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Annual Investor Letter of Leucadia (PFN Buyer)

2010-04-10T07:27:00.001-07:00

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/29686630-C-P2009.pdf

in reference to: Economic Experts Discuss New Airport’s Job Creation Potential — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Crisis in Confidence?

2010-04-03T13:53:00.001-07:00

This story on the business potential of ECP is pretty downbeat. JOE says "more investments!".

An investment should have a return similar to the interest on its debt. ECP borrows at about 4.6 percent, so how much should it "earn" on its $400 Million invested to date? If it earns nothing, the imputed debt will double in 14 years and re-double every 14 years after that.

The power of compound interest means that a mis-allocated large public "investment" becomes a huge millstone hanging on the economy if it does not perform FROM THE BEGINNING.

These political 'investments" are never audited to see if they perform; instead, they are absorbed as "baseline" and more and more resources poured in.

Just some musings on this story to mark it for a reality check in the future.

in reference to:

"But development takes time, officials say"
- Biz conference: New airport to spur future job growth | ecp, fla - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Stormwater in the Marsh

2010-03-23T07:33:00.001-07:00

RMA and Ms. Couch are not the bad guys here; DEP has relented to pressures to "get 'er done" despite abject failure of the "green" plan. I took my boat up there Friday, and in fairness I agree the needle marsh is not endangered at this point. Morell Branch, however, will never be the same - it is now a drainage ditch. DEP has relaxed their permit limits so much that water which is distinctly turbid (15 NTU) is now allowed as "natural background" and water at the limits (44 NTU) would be outright muddy. There is also a layer of tan silt coating the bottom and the roots of the marsh. I shot some not-great video clips, available here (they take some time to stream, but they are just a few seconds except "873" which is 2 minutes):

if you know these blackwater creeks, you must agree this discharge is bad. Unfortunately, the standard now is "legal", not doing the right thing.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010870.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010871.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010872.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010873.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010874.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010875.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010876.MOV

in reference to:

"DEP: Airport Stormwater Not Hurting Marshes"
- DEP: Airport Stormwater Not Hurting Marshes — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Morrell Branch Blues

2010-03-23T06:46:00.001-07:00

in reference to:

"DEP: Airport stormwater not hurting marshes"
- DEP: Airport stormwater not hurting marshes | stormwater, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Study: Airport to spur business

2010-03-13T22:50:00.001-08:00

Archiving the lead paras for follow-up on later developments (no RSS feed from NH). Dr. Lasarda holds a very lucrative consulting contract with the airport.

Study: Airport to spur business
By SCARLET SIMS

News Herald Writer 522-5108 | ssims@pcnh.com
WEST BAY — Airports such as the new Northwest Florida International Beaches Airport will be the anchor for developing a 21st-century metro area, according to a recent study.

Which businesses spring up around airports is the main focus of a Gulf Coast Community College conference to be held April 2.

“We wanted to give the general public the opportunity to see what’s going on,” college continuing education director Debbie Mikolajczyk said. “This is kind of like the first taste. We want the public to have the opportunity to be educated on the new airport.”

The college is sponsoring a conference that is expected to draw 400 or more people. Officials from the St. Joe Co., three chambers of commerce, local economic development boards, Airport Authority members and state officials already plan to attend. Keynote speaker Dr. John Kasarda, Director of Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise and Kenan Distinguished Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, will talk on how best to use the new airport to draw business.

in reference to: Freedom - Panama City, Saturday, March 13, 2010 - ActivePaper Daily by Olive Software (view on Google Sidewiki)

Tracking Another JOE Claim

2010-03-11T12:32:00.001-08:00

Just marking this article - will try to track the 1000-acre development plan by 2013, and how many jobs "created" by JOE.

in reference to:

"St. Joe to concentrate on airport, commercial"
- St. Joe to concentrate on airport, commercial | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New York Times has Higher Standards

2010-03-11T07:04:00.001-08:00

The New York Times reported on New ECP in their March 10 Real Estate section.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/10/realestate/commercial/10airport.html?dbk

The Times does not allow reporters to take paid "media tours" so the result is bit more balanced. One News Herald commenter said:

"Pretty fair. Gives both sides."

I kinda thought they agreed with me; from the NYT article:

"it is perhaps more of a real estate project than an effort to address a pressing transportation problem"

Believe me, in Florida, it's always a land deal.

NYT did quote me:
“It’s been oversold, underdesigned, undermanaged and now botched as a construction project,” said Mr. Hodges, who lives in Bay County. “They’ve got layers of construction experts who have not been able to deliver on what layers of planning experts promised.”

To be fair, they quoted others too. You decide:

Britt Greene, St. Joe:
“Silicon Valley at one point was out in the middle of nowhere, We think we can do the same.”
“Tourism will grow as a result of Southwest connecting us to the rest of the nation,” he said. “Our new dominant strategy is economic development and job growth.”

Bob Montgomery, Southwest:
“Our job, and our challenge, is to build a market — a market that heretofore has not existed,”

Ben Longstreth, Natural Resources Defense Council:
“Unfortunately, a lot of what we were concerned about has come to pass,” Filling all these wetlands we thought and continue to think really jeopardizes the health of the ecosystem in West Bay — for an airport that was entirely unnecessary.”
“What we had wanted them to do was create a written document where they legally put the land in a conservation trust though an easement,” “They also could give it to an entity like the Nature Conservancy, but none of that has been done. It’s simply protected by the creation of a county plan that could be changed at any point.”

And finally Randy Curtis:
“Once the airport is completed and constructed, you’ll actually have a net environmental improvement in the area,”

in reference to:

"The St. Joe Company is working to widen the profile of the new airport and the entire West Bay Sector Plan by hosting several media tours for industry writers, including one today."
- TDC, St. Joe Bringing Media to New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

News Herald Forum on NYTimes Article

2010-03-10T14:25:00.001-08:00

"Pretty fair. Gives both sides."

I kinda thought they agreed with me; from the article:

"it is perhaps more of a real estate project than an effort to address a pressing transportation problem"

Believe me, in Florida, it's always a land deal.

NYT did quote me:
“It’s been oversold, underdesigned, undermanaged and now botched as a construction project,” said Mr. Hodges, who lives in Bay County. “They’ve got layers of construction experts who have not been able to deliver on what layers of planning experts promised.”

To be fair, they quoted others too. You decide:

Britt Greene, St. Joe:
“Silicon Valley at one point was out in the middle of nowhere, We think we can do the same.”
“Tourism will grow as a result of Southwest connecting us to the rest of the nation,” he said. “Our new dominant strategy is economic development and job growth.”

Bob Montgomery, Southwest:
“Our job, and our challenge, is to build a market — a market that heretofore has not existed,”

Ben Longstreth, Natural Resources Defense Council:
“Unfortunately, a lot of what we were concerned about has come to pass,” Filling all these wetlands we thought and continue to think really jeopardizes the health of the ecosystem in West Bay — for an airport that was entirely unnecessary.”
“What we had wanted them to do was create a written document where they legally put the land in a conservation trust though an easement,” “They also could give it to an entity like the Nature Conservancy, but none of that has been done. It’s simply protected by the creation of a county plan that could be changed at any point.”

And finally Randy Curtis:
“Once the airport is completed and constructed, you’ll actually have a net environmental improvement in the area,”

80 days to make it happen, Randy.

in reference to:

"New York Times"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New York Times: It's (perhaps) a Land Deal

2010-03-10T14:01:00.001-08:00

The New York Times almost agrees with me:

"it is perhaps more of a real estate project than an effort to address a pressing transportation problem"

In Florida, it's always a land deal.

Susan Stellin did quote me:

Among the most vocal of those skeptics is Don Hodges, a retiree who worked in airport development for Delta for decades and describes himself as “not an opponent, but certainly a vocal critic” of the way the new airport has been handled.

“It’s been oversold, underdesigned, undermanaged and now botched as a construction project,” said Mr. Hodges, who lives in Bay County. “They’ve got layers of construction experts who have not been able to deliver on what layers of planning experts promised.”

in reference to: Square Feet - New Airport, Northwest Florida Beaches International, to Open - NYTimes.com (view on Google Sidewiki)

Track the Plan

2010-03-08T06:37:00.001-08:00

Sounds like a plan. Lets archive the article and check the progress in 2012.

in reference to:

"St. Joe Targets Industries to Recuit to West Bay"
- St. Joe Targets Industries to Recuit to West Bay — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

JOE's Plan for 2012

2010-03-06T05:55:00.001-08:00

Kevin Johnson on the merits of West Bay. Sounds like a plan - lets archive the article and check the scorecard in 2012.

in reference to: St. Joe reveals timetable on West Bay, gears up marketing | timetable, bay, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Post Activity Reports Online

2010-03-03T08:16:00.001-08:00

I honestly don't know how well Southwest will do, but the airport is notorious for NOT publishing traffic statistics etc. online. Randy could do a great service by publishing traffic and fare statistics for ECP monthly, so we would not have to attend the board meetings for an activity report.

in reference to:

"Southwest Competition Already Reducing Airfares by NewPFN on March 2, 2010"
- Southwest Competition Already Reducing Airfares — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Post Activity Reports Online

2010-03-03T08:12:00.001-08:00

in reference to: Delta already has responded to competition - LETTERS TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

For the Record

2010-03-03T08:07:00.001-08:00

I honestly don't know how well SW will do, but I'm posting this to have a link back someday.

daveeaux wrote:
SW airlines will come in and be very successful. This will bring industry to our town (not just tourism). This will bring younger people. This will silence the old timers in this little town for good. sorry old people.

in reference to:

"SW airlines will come in and be very successful. This will bring industry to our town (not just tourism). This will bring younger people. This will silence the old timers in this little town for good. sorry old people."
- Delta already has responded to competition - LETTERS TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

More - FAA Standards

2010-03-01T11:37:00.001-08:00

I personally agree PFN is also exposed to wildlife hazards, but as FAA said about many "comparable" capabilities, they try to IMPROVE hazards with new projects by furnishing standards. The wildlife hazard specs are "strongly recommended". The airport was designed to these specs but it appears it will not comply. The ponds in the crosswind runway area cannot possibly dry out in 48 hours without massive fill that has not been done.

in reference to: Birds, wetlands will always plague airport - LETTER TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

FAA on New Storm Water Controls

2010-03-01T07:15:00.001-08:00

here's what FAA thinks:

b. New storm water management facilities. The FAA strongly recommends that off-
airport storm water management systems located within the separations identified in
Sections 1-2 through 1-4 be designed and operated so as not to create above-
ground standing water. Stormwater detention ponds should be designed,
engineered, constructed, and maintained for a maximum 48–hour detention period
after the design storm and remain completely dry between storms.

in reference to: Birds, wetlands will always plague airport - LETTER TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Measuring Turbidity

2010-03-01T07:03:00.001-08:00

bennett,
Here's a simple guide to turbidity measurement:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/Turbidity-Myre_Shaw.pdf

The Baywatch folks take samples back to a lab instrument that is much more accurate, but the measurement is still "how much light penetrates the sample". It does not discriminate silt vs organics but repetitive historic samples correlate with rainfall events, seasons, etc. These spikes into 200+ NTU have only occurred since airport construction.

DEP is now ordering NTU measurements at some outfalls daily or even every 8 hours - these are locations at the project boundary so there is no confusion about the source. All measurements cited by DEP in the Consent Orders were taken at these locations.
here's a key map to the locations:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/PC%20Airport%20sample%20location%20map..jpg

in reference to: Airport should hug environmentalists, not ‘dis' them - PAT RICE - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

UPDATE Traffic Post

2010-03-01T07:00:00.001-08:00

There will actually be 10 mainline planes and 6 regionals for 1700 departing seats per day.

75% load factor on that is 1275 sales per day, TRIPLE last years traffic. They are setting a tall bar.

in reference to: Delta will add larger planes at new airport | airport, new, delta - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Traffic Check

2010-02-25T08:19:00.001-08:00

Time for a capacity check - if I'm counting right, we will have six mainline and six regional planes departing every day, about 1140 seats per day. Last year Delta sold 423 hi-fare seats out of 600 per day offered. The fares look to be 30-40% less, so what will the sales be? Each airline needs to sell about 75% to break even, or 855 total. (SW can actually sell only 40% and get 35% reimbursed from St Joe). Its an interesting problem for both - no volume increase (423 of 1140) is 37%, obviously too low, but what is a realistic number? I would guess 50% increase or 635 per day, 55% load factor. A loser of about $16,000 per day each for Delta and St Joe, break even for SW. St Joe's $32M will last 5 years at this rate, so it's a question of how long Delta wants to bleed.

A doubling of traffic makes everybody well, and Delta could help by raising fares at VPS to drive more to ECP. The game will play out in Dallas, Atlanta, and Jacksonville, but Bay county passengers can't lose for now.

in reference to: Delta will add larger planes at new airport | airport, new, delta - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

School Taxes

2010-02-22T17:16:00.001-08:00

I'm no expert on school districts, but I'd be very surprised if the county commission can restrict their levying of property taxes. Most "special districts" have their own enabling laws as political subdivisions - just like cities/counties, and those with elected boards can usually levy property taxes. Sales taxes are different and require a referendum. This is the same idea that has county commissions and the legislature running scared on Amendment 4 "Hometown Democracy" - THEY DON'T LIKE BINDING REFERENDA. Somebody (lawyer?) help me here...

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Dueling with a Straw Man

2010-02-22T15:21:00.001-08:00

bennett,

We don't conclude "all" or "100%" from ECP - you are changing the subject to a straw-man that is not the question.

At the forum last week, Baywatch presented linear studies of the creek/trib turbidity at various positions and times since 1995, using observations with instruments calibrated to control samples. There is no question that the general quality is lower and these spikes have only occurred since construction started. There are other sources, and the 388 project is significant, but nowhere near the scale of the airport releases. DEP has also documented these releases from on-site inspections using only airport discharges, and cited them in two Consent Orders the airport has signed (the second because of violating the first). Do you think they would sign these orders if they had a defense? Nobody is making this up or only speculating from eyeballing. DEP is now relaxing the permits to give them a shot at compliance before opening day. (Or, if you prefer, a shot at completing the project by opening day.) Based on today's pictures, it isn't going too well.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Somebody Saw it Coming in 2002

2010-02-22T14:43:00.001-08:00

bugger said,
"I can't believe nobody saw something like this coming."

I saw it coming and told them this in written comments - December 2002:

1. An airport is a very long-life development whose siting, design, and environmental mitigation strategy should provide for
many years into the future. Active airfields in this region date from the early 1940’s, already 60 years old and with indefinite
remaining life. It is appropriate to plan a permanent facility with at least 100 years of service life.

2. The physical scope of the project to be assessed should include: the airport fully built out (two parallel runways, one
crosswind runway, passenger terminal sized to accommodate the passenger traffic implied by two parallel runways, fuel,
cargo and general aviation facilities sized for full build-out, on-site and off-site stormwater treatment structures sized for full
build-out) and any cumulative impacts triggered by the presence of a hub airport (on-airport industries, off-airport industrial
and distribution facilities, commercial facilities, residential developments, roads, streets, utility corridors, and related
stormwater treatment structures). If the scope is reduced, the Airport Layout Plan (ALP) showing the ultimate planned buildout
should be permanently reduced accordingly, to assure that the environmental design is compatible with the ultimate
planned build-out. All the stormwater mitigation structures may not need to be built to ultimate capacity in the first phase, but
the environmental analysis should establish the requirements for building to full capacity.

3. Analysis of the ambient environment should follow the best science available, based on field observations in addition to
archived data, because the archived data is understood to be incomplete in the project area.

4. Seasonal studies of fresh water quality and flow from the site to West Bay should be done, and should cover an interval long
enough to recognize effects of the prolonged drought now in progress.

5. The design of the airport-plus-cumulative-impacts stormwater runoff treatment structures should produce effluent with
quality equal to or better than the ambient fresh water observed in the seasonal studies per Item (4.)

6. Construction should be phased and scheduled to avoid exposing more bare earth than the
stormwater runoff control structures and methods in place can treat to pre-construction
ambient water quality.

7. Temporary construction facilities such as mobile offices, employee parking, mobilization
and material laydown/storage areas should be designed and operated to treat stormwater
runoff to pre-construction ambient water quality.

8. In any event, including hurricane rainfall conditions, silt transport to Burnt Mill Creek and/or Crooked Creek and their tributaries in excess of pre-construction ambient conditions,
including hurricane rainfall conditions, should not occur during construction.

The permits say the same thing, but little effort was made to comply during construction until the lid blew off in April 2009.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Thanks Caz

2010-02-22T10:37:00.001-08:00

Thanks for speaking up, Caz. The Southwest deal is a real winner but it's time to retire the "Preservation Forever" theme - if it was ever sincere, it's now out of reach and may threaten opening on time. The only way to cure this is a phased stabilization from north to south (high to low) AND IT CAN'T BE DONE BY MAY 23. It will get harder after operations begin and access to the site is secured. They really have no choice but to "weather (pun here?) a storm of negative publicity". And pay through the nose in fines and corrective action. The consensus at the forum was that the fines should go toward actually buying some buffer lands for the public, rather than funding some showboating project that does nothing for West Bay.

The creeks are muddy again today:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/Creeks388_022210?h=201255

More of my thoughts are over at the "forums-general topics-airport boondoggle" forum:

http://www.newsherald.com/share/forums/?plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3acf3288d4-9543-4d98-814a-38dfefa2d8c8Forum%3a38f41715-79d4-418d-b9f6-72c495b24492Discussion%3abb3ae6a7-9113-4dae-9ece-e6daec0c88db&plckCurrentPage=63

or at http://donhodges.blogspot.com

Mr. Tannehill would probably like a do-over on the "Baywatch is in it for the money" quote. Baywatch has been scrupulously neutral on the issues here and on the science. The data at the forum was unequivocal: the creeks are worse off downstream of the airport, both geographically and historically.

The creeks at Hwy 388 - Feb 22 2010

2010-02-22T08:32:00.001-08:00

Crooked Creek taking the worst hit today, but Burnt Mill probably over discharge limits.

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/Creeks388_022210?h=201255

in reference to:

"Crooked Creek taking the worst hit today, but Burnt Mill probably over discharge limits.http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/Creeks388_022210?h=201255"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

THE Beach

2010-02-21T06:31:00.001-08:00

Aster,
Since you brought it up, it appears something IS happening at the beach - Pier Park in particular is holding up well through a tough winter, and the "all in" commitment to Spring Break seems to be moderating. I have always felt the west end of the county has great potential on its own, and that is a primary reason I resisted sacrificing the present airport for less money than it took for Finch to ruin the creeks. A fully developed airport of any size is a unique resource that is almost impossible to obtain, and this city, county and authority just threw one away for chump change. Of course the whole Partners in Progress scam and the redev of an even more harmful project is icing on the cake. Losing the airport, the F-15, and maybe Sallie Mae will be very difficult for the eastern county to absorb. At least until St Joe is ready to do its number on East Bay. Now there's a pleasant thought...

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Time and Budget

2010-02-16T07:59:00.001-08:00

It depends on which schedule and budget is in use. It was supposed to open in 2006, and pick your budget:
$89 Million
$129M
$206M
$272M
$335M
$318M

When the $129M was announced, I called the business editor of the News Herald and told him it would be at least $250M and he could file that away. I had no idea I would be the low bidder.

in reference to: Chairman Tannehill: ‘Project remains on time and on budget’ — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Survivor Bias

2010-01-26T15:30:00.001-08:00

aster,
You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive.

About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one.

asterisque wrote:
When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)
In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county.

Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds.

in reference to:

"aster,You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive. About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one. 1/26/2010 10:31 AM CST on newsherald.com Recommend (3) Report Abuse Permalink asterisque wrote: When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county. Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds."
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Calm Discussion

2010-01-25T11:12:00.001-08:00

Carlmbennett,
first, thanks for the calm discussion!

I agree the project is progressing and all the prior disputes are moot. That does not relieve the project team of its obligations, legal and ethical, to do what they proposed and agreed to do, and further agreed some more under enforcement. So far it is not happening. I think that falls under your "execution of the West Bay Sector Plan in a balanced manner that protects the West Bay estuarine environment" - which is the subject of this News Herald article.

Over and out...

in reference to:

"Carlmbennett,first, thanks for the calm discussion!I agree the project is progressing and all the prior disputes are moot. That does not relieve the project team of its obligations, legal and ethical, to do what they proposed and agreed to do, and further agreed some more under enforcement. So far it is not happening. I think that falls under your "execution of the West Bay Sector Plan in a balanced manner that protects the West Bay estuarine environment" - which is the subject of this News Herald article. Over and out..."
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Old Timers

2010-01-24T22:31:00.001-08:00

carlmbennett,
I too am a 3rd generation old-timer, born here in 1938, and I started into this just about where you are ("what's the big deal?"), but the deeper I looked the stranger it got, especially since I know a bit about airports and also spend a fair amount of time on the bay. I would count at least 3 of the airport board members as friends, but they they have allowed corporate welfare politics and high-powered consultants to create a mess if not an enviro crisis that was totally unnecessary. If they get this mysterious drainage system to work, we may eventually see the watershed recover. If not,they have set in motion the decline of the very natural resources that are attractive to visitors (and by extension to Southwest Airlines and those mythic clean job industries). The world is full of attractive destinations and nobody knows which specific insult will be the one that kills the golden goose, but our "community leaders" seem determined to find the limit.
Court testimony says this project is perhaps the last large scale frontal assault on the Gulf Coast wetland environment, and the precedent it sets almost guarantees it will get worse. Someday people will look at Bay County and say "Wow! How did did such a beautiful place stay so beautiful?" OR "How did such a beautiful place (like Tampa Bay, the Everglades, the St Johns River, the Apalachicola River) become THIS, we have to clean it up"! I don't want to be on the wrong side of that choice, so I pay attention to what is said vs. done, photograph the creeks, call DEP and FAA when things look strange, and record the outcomes vs. the claims. As someone said, "The facts are friendly"; I will let the facts speak for themselves.

"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to: Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Censorship

2010-01-24T07:37:00.001-08:00

f you want permanent posts, crosspost to a sidewiki - its a Google svc that places a post alongside the web page. You have to join sidewiki to read them there but they are also posted to a Blogger blog where they are linked back to the page. Here's mine:
http://donhodges.blogspot.com/

Hope this stays up - the only post I ever had deleted was about sidewiki. Its to an editor like a wooden cross to vampire, since IT CAN'T BE EDITED.

UPDATE: THIS POST WAS DELETED FROM THE NEWS HERALD COMMENTS.
in reference to:

"f you want permanent posts, crosspost to a sidewiki - its a Google svc that places a post alongside the web page. You have to join sidewiki to read them there but they are also posted to a Blogger blog where they are linked back to the page. Here's mine:http://donhodges.blogspot.com/Hope this stays up - the only post I ever had deleted was about sidewiki. Its to an editor like a wooden cross to vampire, since IT CAN'T BE EDITED."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

LaGuardia was also built in a swamp

2010-01-23T15:24:00.001-08:00

"NYC locals tell me LaGuardia was also built in a swamp."

Now THAT's encouraging. LaGuardia is also about the airport PFN could have been expanded to without complications, and it has 21 million passengers a year.

Both facts moot now, but there has been a lot of abuse of the truth. Now they say they will keep PFN open while they finish ECP, a 2-airport plan they swore several times could not be done. If ECP had started out as minimum-footprint 1-runway, the enviro problems would have been minimized. Now we get ANOTHER hyper-development at the PFN site.
1/23/2010 5:23 PM CST

in reference to:

""NYC locals tell me LaGuardia was also built in a swamp."Now THAT's encouraging. LaGuardia is also about the airport PFN could have been expanded to without complications, and it has 21 million passengers a year.Both facts moot now, but there has been a lot of abuse of the truth. Now they say they will keep PFN open while they finish ECP, a 2-airport plan they swore several times could not be done. If ECP had started out as minimum-footprint 1-runway, the enviro problems would have been minimized. Now we get ANOTHER hyper-development at the PFN site. 1/23/2010 5:23 PM CST"
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Not an Act of God

2010-01-22T23:51:00.001-08:00

This is not an act of God, it is failing to do rudimentary civil engineering and heavy construction practices. The only way to control storm water on a site this big is to subdivide it and phase the construction, establishing drainage and turf in manageable tracts. Once 1300 acres were cleared and worked without immediately restoring some grass, it got out of control. The amount of silt in Burnt Mill Creek last April and this week is nothing like the localized runoff from a small site - it is massive on a watershed scale. There is also 10 miles of bare shoulders on CR388 due to the widening project; the surface water in the north ditches, which flows from the wetlands, is clear. In the south ditches, it is silt. The state and county regulations are not severe and they depend on the professionals involved to use the best practices. Where this is done, huge silt blow-outs don't happen. The airport has already signed two consent orders admitting these violations to DEP, it is not just a bunch of kibitzers with opinions.

Our bay system is self-contained; we have no Atlanta or Pittsburg upstream to spoil it. If it is ruined, we ruined it. If it is protected by "state-of-the-art" environmental technology, we protected it.

For now, I believe my lying eyes and I have photos to prove it - "we" are trashing these creeks.

Photos from CR388 and the creeks, Thursday Jan. 21:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

Aerial Photos of ECP project, Friday Jan. 22:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/ECPJan22_10?h=0305cd

in reference to: Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Comment on News Herald Story 1-21-10

2010-01-22T11:26:00.001-08:00

carl,

I took a series of pictures along 388 yesterday, and I can assure you the broad area drainage is strikingly cleaner than the Morrell Branch drainage corridor from ECP site to Burnt Mill - THERE IS NO DOUBT THE SILTATION OF BURNT MILL CREEK IS FROM FAILURES OF THE ECP SITE DRAINAGE. We will probably have aerial pictures to confirm this today, and DEP is also on site compiling conditions.

I think the airport board and St Joe can be proud of their Southwest Airlines recruitment, but they are botching their construction project. Also, the 10 miles of widening CR388 has laid bare muddy shoulders eroding south toward West Bay and St Joe's RiverCamps. When the impact starts affecting land values, they will both wake up -about 20 years too late.

A few of my pictures are at:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

in reference to:

"carl,I took a series of pictures along 388 yesterday, and I can assure you the broad area drainage is strikingly cleaner than the Morrell Branch drainage corridor from ECP site to Burnt Mill - THERE IS NO DOUBT THE SILTATION OF BURNT MILL CREEK IS FROM FAILURES OF THE ECP SITE DRAINAGE. We will probably have aerial pictures to confirm this today, and DEP is also on site compiling conditions.I think the airport board and St Joe can be proud of their Southwest Airlines recruitment, but they are botching their construction project. Also, the 10 miles of widening CR388 has laid bare muddy shoulders eroding south toward West Bay and St Joe's RiverCamps. When the impact starts affecting land values, they will both wake up -about 20 years too late.A few of my pictures are at:http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc"
- Airport officials fight stormwater | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Jan 21 - Another Storm Water Blowout

2010-01-22T09:57:00.001-08:00

It appears we are having another April 2009-scale blowout to Burnt Mill creek. This photo, taken today, is looking southeastward from the CR 388 bridge. Mud jello. More fines.
Posted by asterisque

Here's a link to a few more photos along CR388. The road widening has 10 miles of muddy shoulders eroding to the south, in addition to the airport blowout. Note the intracoastal waterway is a bit colored but not "chocolate milk." Also a couple of signposts along the way...

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to:

"It appears we are having another April 2009-scale blowout to Burnt Mill creek. This photo, taken today, is looking southeastward from the CR 388 bridge. Mud jello. More fines.Posted by asterisqueHere's a link to a few more photos along CR388. The road widening has 10 miles of muddy shoulders eroding to the south, in addition to the airport blowout. Note the intracoastal waterway is a bit colored but not "chocolate milk." Also a couple of signposts along the way...http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc "No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black SwanMy other blogs : http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Storm Drains

2009-12-28T10:17:00.001-08:00

There is an underdrain system, except for the crosswind runway that was not built and is now several lakes.
Because of the flooding, DEP made them plug the outfalls and pump the storm water after treatment, but they never catch up between rains. The big "SOTA" sand filter is also flooded with muddy water after months of trying to keep it dry and then dumping the excess water over Thanksgiving weekend. As I said before, I expect them to blow out the mud and try to connect the drains near opening day when the ribbon cutting has the News Herald giddy.
Then the pipes will flush to the tune of a few more fines, and we'll see if it works. All bets off if they don't get some grass growing. 3 inches of rain = 300 acre-feet of water, more than these little branches they have ditched out can handle.

in reference to: Top 10 of '09: Controversial airport moves ahead on schedule | schedule, airport, top - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

The ECP Code

2009-12-25T19:47:00.001-08:00

I recall they were given a short list from FAA of codes that were available, and the airport responded with 3 from the list in no preferred order. FAA then assigned ECP - any correlation is coincidence. They ran out of 3-letter codes with "relevance" to location, and often the relevance is no longer valid, like "PFN" relating to "Panama City - Fannin Field". I was born here and i don't know who Fannin is/was (or Hathaway either). The codes are all over the place - person names (JFK - changed from IDL for Idlewild, a place), (BDL - Bradley - Hartford), city names (BOS, MIA, TLH,TPA), airport names (RSW - used to be SW Florida Regional, now SW Florida International - Ft Myers), (IAH - Houston Intercontinental), and meaningless (4R4 - Fairhope AL), (YUL - Montreal), (ECP - NWFBIA).

There's an interesting web article about arcane airport codes at http://www.skygod.com/asstd/abc.html

in reference to:

"I recall they were given a short list from FAA of codes that were available, and the airport responded with 3 from the list in no preferred order. FAA then assigned ECP - any correlation is coincidence. They ran out of 3-letter codes with "relevance" to location, and often the relevance is no longer valid, like "PFN" relating to "Panama City - Fannin Field". I was born here and i don't know who Fannin is/was (or Hathaway either). The codes are all over the place - person names (JFK - changed from IDL for Idlewild, a place), (BDL - Bradley - Hartford), city names (BOS, MIA, TLH,TPA), airport names (RSW - used to be SW Florida Regional, now SW Florida International - Ft Myers), (IAH - Houston Intercontinental), and meaningless (4R4 - Fairhope AL), (YUL - Montreal), (ECP - NWFBIA).There's an interesting web article about arcane airport codes at http://www.skygod.com/asstd/abc.html"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

On the Facts

2009-12-23T09:05:00.001-08:00

02worth said, "Donhodges, do you have a set of plans, do you really know what the proposed stormwater treatment was?"

02,
Actually, I do know what the design is, and if you took the trouble to read the docs you would know too. I don't jump on here with things I can't back up. What the airport says and what it writes to agencies are often quite different. I use the written stuff or photos that don't lie. As a friend said to me, "Ink leaves tracks, words flow with the breeze." What do the words "state of the art" mean, absent any explanation? What does "Preserve Forever" mean, coming from a team that violated its permits in May 2006, before they were even issued? What is the "West Bay Preservation Area" without a map with actual dimensions on it? What is a corporate promise not given in writing?

Is it any wonder the people on here automatically go negative when any public effort is reported, not just the airport? We have learned the very hard way that what is said is usually either misleading or outright false.

Southwest Airlines is a breath of fresh air in this - you can bet they will have their deal in writing and retain the right to keep the books on it. That may come as a shock to people accustomed to just revising away inconvenient agreements.

in reference to:

"Donhodges, do you have a set of plans, do you really know what the proposed stormwater treatment was?"
- More stormwater fines levied against airport | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

State of the Art by February??

2009-12-22T18:01:00.001-08:00

The "retention ponds" are an emergency measure they never had in their plan, but now that they are necessary, the airport board takes credit as if they planned to use them all along. The plan was to just rim the site with little silt fences and GET AWAY WITH ANY VIOLATIONS. This proved to be "optimistic" in the face of 1,300 acre-feet of rain. The pictures in April rendered that plan "inoperative" as Tricky Dick Nixon would say, so now they maintain ponds, pump when they can, and scratch their heads about how to drain them and go on the designed drains which have about a 50/50 chance of working AFTER THE SITE IS GRASSED. I honestly don't know how they get to May opening with grass, a dry sand filter (this is the vaunted "state of the art" feature, sorta like a swimming pool filter - it is now flooded with turbid water), and a drainage system. They probably don't care - the ribbon-cutting will distract the public and the NH long enough to just puke the mud in one big release, pay the fine and settle down to regular but diminishing fines as the grass grows and the rain falls and the creeks become ditches like they have made of Kelly Branch and Morrell Branch. These guys literally don't know a creek when they see one.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

State of the Art Problem

2009-12-22T17:54:00.001-08:00

in reference to: More stormwater fines levied against airport | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

More on the Local Identity

2009-12-17T08:29:00.001-08:00

I was reminded of John Prine's song "Paradise":

"Daddy won't you take me back to Muhlenburg County, down by the Green River, where paradise lay...
Well, I'm sorry, my son, but you're too late in askin', Mr. Peabody's coal train done hauled it away,"

Probably works for Bay County and Mr Finch's slipform paver too.

in reference to:

"I was reminded of John Prine's song "Paradise":"Daddy won't you take me back to Muhlenburg County, down by the Green River, where paradise lay... Well, I'm sorry, my son, but you're too late in askin', Mr. Peabody's coal train done hauled it away,"Probably works for Bay County and Mr Finch's slipform paver too."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

SW and the Beaches

2009-12-17T08:08:00.001-08:00

If any airline can succeed with this, it is Southwest. The subsidy makes no difference to the customer as long as SW is willing to try. They will do OK to Baltimore and Nashville in part because the "beyond" traffic is good, and assuming Delta rolls over for them.

Several airlines have tried Orlando and Houston before and it was always weak (not just those cities but east-west along the Gulf in general - New Orleans and Tampa no better). East-west and intra-Florida will make or break it unless they are so successful north-south that they can re-direct their excess seats there. The obvious new market is extending fly-in Orlando vacations to our beaches - a possibility but Disney and the other Orlando stops will fight to keep the traveler there. (If they can build China, they can build a nice beach.)

With the subsidy SW has the luxury of a "competition lab" at no risk for two years - I suspect the experiment intrigued SW as much as the fundamentals. Customers could care less - they will go where their budget and reasons for travel coincide. SW and St Joe have satisfied the budget piece - now the beaches must deliver a reason to travel. Panama City and eastern Bay County are "all in", having "contributed" 1/3 the cost, about half the passenger base, the community airport, and a natural resource that cannot be replaced or "relocated".

Good luck, beaches, it's your moment.

in reference to: Southwest announces destination cities | panama, city, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

The Airport and the Courts

2009-12-10T07:07:00.001-08:00

Roger on the courts - I provided two depositions about the financial and enviro risk of this project, and volumes of comments on the EIS. FAA dismissed them by assuring the court that ordinary construction controls would manage the risk. They may even be right, but we didn't get even the minimal controls required by law. This is not my opinion, the authority has signed two consent orders admitting it.

in reference to: Airport again facing DEP fines | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Who pays?

2009-12-09T09:26:00.001-08:00

itismee,
I don't know about the Phoenix fine, but the airport keeps getting extensions and is now shopping for a local environmental org to do an "in kind' project so they can claim its all for the good.

It really doesn't matter who pays the fine (unless Phoenix pays it from previous profits - very unlikely). Every cent comes from FDOT (taxpayers), FAA (taxpayers or passenger fees), or sale of the old airport (previously funded by taxpayers and land contributions). The airport board is not spending its own money, thus has no incentive to manage the project - its just a question of which trough to wallow in.

The only check on them is the courts, and there again they spend tax money while the challenger spends real money - guess who runs out first?

If any of these men had this project to develop with their own money, they would run from it like squirrels.

in reference to: Airport again facing DEP fines | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Revisiting the Promises (You can't go back home)

2009-12-07T16:15:00.001-08:00

[QUOTE]Here's what the airport said in the 4/30 NH article. I wonder where those "experts" were last week. A team of almost 20 top construction and engineering officials hammered out the final version of a plan designed to prevent another uncontrolled stormwater runoff, which followed a series of storms last month that dumped as much as 20 inches of rain across the region. Under the watchful eye of Airport Authority Chairman Joe Tannehill, senior project manager Roy Willett vowed to correct any problems and usher in a new spirit of tight coordination between construction teams and transparency with the DEP and public. Here's what we got now. That worked well.
Posted by asterisque[/QUOTE]

A violator always says the expedient thing that will get the current heat off. Nobody remembers the promises, and the "problem" will just be another opportunity to PROMISE BIGGER when it returns. Its the old saw: all publicity is good publicity. Next time they'll promise to restore MORE THAN EVERYTHING at no cost to taxpayers (and don't forget: we got Southwest, so anything is possible).

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

December 2009 Flooding

2009-12-05T09:52:00.001-08:00

The project is violating its permits using its own historic and current measurements. They brought most of this on themselves by clearing the whole site with essentially no construction runoff controls, and it will haunt them because they are overstating what they can do with storm water quality in the setting. There is "fast", "cheap", and "high quality" - you can only do two of the three.

The only way to avoid this is to slow down and phase the construction; these guys are still accelerating and we have the spectacle of FDOT granting money to pay FDEP fines. As long as the money comes from the tooth fairy there is no reason to comply, but at least the PR-crazy boosters could stop claiming to "preserve West Bay forever" and blathering about "state of the art". That lasted about two months, and it was only to hoodwink the greens anyway. We are way past that phase.

in reference to: Airport again facing DEP fines | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Truly Green Serial Violator

2009-11-30T17:55:00.001-08:00

The PR somehow fails to mention the airport is under two environmental consent orders from the Corps of Engineers and the Florida DEP. These orders and fines were not assessed for being "truly green."

in reference to: Jones Lang LaSalle Launches Web Site Highlighting Commercial Development Opportunities at New Airport — The New PFN (view on Google Sidewiki)

Brian vs. Zelda on 10,000 ft Runway

2009-11-28T07:10:00.001-08:00

Brian,
Obviously you and Zelda cannot both be right if taken literally, but Zelda is "more right", because Southwest does operate from both Midway and John Wayne (Orange County CA, 5400 ft) every day without selecting airplanes for it. Because of its altitude, Midway's 6500 ft main runway is functionally the same as PFN's 6300 ft sea level runway. The charts you found are for the extreme condition of "maximum takeoff weight" which is usually "maximum fuel plus as much payload as possible with max fuel". This configuration is of interest only if the mission is maximum range, such as ferrying the airplane to Europe with only a crew. For passenger operations, the controlling configuration is "range with maximum payload (much less than max fuel)" and the 737's can obviously operate from Midway to the West Coast daily from less than 6500 ft. The 737-700 (most of SW fleet) can go to max payload/range from 5200 ft. To get these numbers, you have to read Boeing performance charts for the airplanes (these were online at some point but I'm not sure if still available). AirTran has recently announced 737-700 service to Key West (4800 ft).

This is all academic as to the Beaches airport, but its important to be careful with the facts. I have always said that the new airport should be 10,000 ft if it is to add any significant capability, because the old airport was capable of handling any likely domestic flight. The 757 has even better performance than the 737, going daily from Orange County to New York. The 10,000 ft runway only comes into play for intercontinental flights - it is not necessary for Canada or Mexico. No doubt St. Joe will charter some international 757/767 flights to promote its property and the airport. The long term hope is to attract an international industry that could use the airport for logistics.

The new airport will thus be more capable at the high end, where operations will be few. At the low end, where most of its takeoffs/landings are, it will be less capable because it has no crosswind runway needed over 100 days a year by light airplanes. The nearest alternative will be Marianna or Apalachicola; Panama City will be the largest city in the state with no community airport within 10 miles, having sold PFN for half the cost of grading the swamp at West Bay.

in reference to: FAA OKs runway extension | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Air Cargo

2009-11-23T10:33:00.001-08:00

In Response to Air cargo:
I did some internet research yesterday on air cargo, widely touted as the goal of the 10,000 ft runway. We get back to what has been a major problem in creating economic progress in Bay County, and that is-- it takes an hour to get to the interestate--and that's way too long for many businesses/industries. It's a lasting problem that many believe was created by Dempsey Barron, when the I-10 route was planned, who preferred to give this important access to Marianna, where he had is farm / ranch business.
Posted by asterisque

First Dempsey Barron - I always get a charge out of "Dempsey Barron as Revered Leader". My daddy alleged that he delivered sugar to Dempsey's daddy's still in Bay Harbor - guess who was tending the fire. My own experience was it took him 40 years to 4-lane US 231 in Florida.

AIr Cargo - Today, air cargo is synonomous with Fedex and UPS. I have heard boosters say Fedex has plans to use NWFBIA; I have no idea if this is possible, but after the SW deal who knows anything (see my sig). An interesting exercise might be "clustering" the insourced foreign auto plants to see if there is a logical location for importing their high-value parts. Offhand I would guess Atlanta or perhaps Huntsville if they want a quieter airport.

There was a great enthusiasm for "intermodal cargo" back in the '70's when wide-body air freighters came out. Much academic work was done (including the infamous "Aerotropolis"), but one problem proved insurmountable: the weight of containers strong enough for sea-rail-truck was just not economic for air cargo. So sea-rail, sea-truck, and rail-truck intermodal cargo prospered and air cargo remained a niche for high-value and time-sensitive goods. The only sizeable intermodal market for air service is air-cruiseship, where the "payload" is self-contained. There is another story about the rise of package service vs. postal service, but it will wait for another day.
"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to:

"In Response to Air cargo:I did some internet research yesterday on air cargo, widely touted as the goal of the 10,000 ft runway. <snip /> We get back to what has been a major problem in creating economic progress in Bay County, and that is-- it takes an hour to get to the interestate--and that's way too long for many businesses/industries. It's a lasting problem that many believe was created by Dempsey Barron, when the I-10 route was planned, who preferred to give this important access to Marianna, where he had is farm / ranch business.Posted by asterisqueFirst Dempsey Barron - I always get a charge out of "Dempsey Barron as Revered Leader". My daddy alleged that he delivered sugar to Dempsey's daddy's still in Bay Harbor - guess who was tending the fire. My own experience was it took him 40 years to 4-lane US 231 in Florida.AIr Cargo - Today, air cargo is synonomous with Fedex and UPS. I have heard boosters say Fedex has plans to use NWFBIA; I have no idea if this is possible, but after the SW deal who knows anything (see my sig). An interesting exercise might be "clustering" the insourced foreign auto plants to see if there is a logical location for importing their high-value parts. Offhand I would guess Atlanta or perhaps Huntsville if they want a quieter airport. There was a great enthusiasm for "intermodal cargo" back in the '70's when wide-body air freighters came out. Much academic work was done (including the infamous "Aerotropolis"), but one problem proved insurmountable: the weight of containers strong enough for sea-rail-truck was just not economic for air cargo. So sea-rail, sea-truck, and rail-truck intermodal cargo prospered and air cargo remained a niche for high-value and time-sensitive goods. The only sizeable intermodal market for air service is air-cruiseship, where the "payload" is self-contained. There is another story about the rise of package service vs. postal service, but it will wait for another day. "No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black SwanMy other blogs : http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Environmental Debate

2009-11-22T09:51:00.001-08:00

I'm too old to get in this debate, but old enough to report one observation: we had lots of tar balls on our (THE?)Beaches before the tanker ballast pumping ban. This observation goes back to 1948 or so.

Environmentally, things are both better and worse. Raw sewage and fish-cleaning offal flowed into the bay where the downtown marina is now, and industrial waste from the paper mill was staggering - both are much better now. Presently worse are the "non-point-source" effects of population growth, developing the shorelines, wetlands and sand dunes - these are basically irreversible without consensus on how development proceeds. Development aggravates the "Tragedy of the Commons", each one alone can show no (or too little to ban) harm, but the aggregate impact is the "death by a thousand cuts". Our waters are still biologically viable but others, like the St. Johns and Apalachicola rivers, are already threatened. The political response is to propose new categories of waters like "boatable/splashable". Where is the bottom line? - "viewable", "filterable", or even "burnable" like the Cleveland river that launched the clean water movement in 1969?

No upstream flows affect Bay County much - if it becomes foul, we have only ourselves accountable.

in reference to: Environmentalists: Look at Texas to see what's coming | texas, see, aransas - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Airport Board Game

2009-11-22T08:50:00.001-08:00

Panama City is giving up not only its historic financial interest that is being sold for $50 Million (about half the cost of the poor grading work at NWFBIA), it has given up a close-in community airport and it now appears the regional airport will not replace the community airport's crosswind capacity that is needed by light planes over 100 days a year. As a critic (not a luddite opponent), I tried for years to get the board to finance the new airport separately and deliver two airports (the new one 10,000 feet) by seeking another $50 Million or so, or foregoing the crosswind. (Don't tell me an interest that can raise $250 Million can't get $300 Million, the cost escalation exceeds $150 Million and the consulting fees will approach $100 Million.) Much of the cost of the new airport is duplicating the general aviation facilities at PFN, probably better than a break-even offset if the crosswind runway is included. This is the plan Ft. Myers followed; SW Florida Regional had only one runway for 25 years, and still has no crosswind because Page Field is still in Ft. Myers and heavily used. When this is over, Panama City will be the only sizeable city in Florida without a paved and instrumented community airport within 10 miles. Even Okaloosa has two paved general aviation airports, even though Eglin AFB dominates the airspace and hosts the airline terminal.

I'll never understand why the boosters launched this project with a fear mongering campaign that assumed the public was easier to fool than to persuade.

The winners get to write history and the new airport's deal with Southwest is a resounding winner. That does not mean there was never a competitive alternative with the same outcome.

As for the board, it really doesn't matter - the airport is influenced much more by external interests - just like every other political honey pot.

in reference to: Airport board game - EDITORIAL - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Southwest vs Delta

2009-11-18T21:37:00.001-08:00

I think SW sees a no-lose opportunity to carve a piece out of Delta.

The easiest way for it to work is if Delta does not respond with serious fare reductions, especially at Northwest FL Regional (VPS). If SW gets half of the present VPS traffic in addition to a large share of PFN's, SW will be well within the revenue guaranteed by JOE, and the TDC subsidy adds some to the momentum.

If Delta is willing to bleed, say, $30 million a year for 2 years (double JOE's subsidy), it will be up to JOE/SW to decide how long all 3 (Delta, JOE, and perhaps SW in the 3rd year) will bleed. Delta did this to AirTran in Tallahassee, but AirTran was losing its own money, is not as big as Southwest, and it was head-to-head to Atlanta. An interesting move for Delta would be to cut back to only feeding the international traffic from Beaches airport, and seek its own subsidy to slash fares at VPS or just slash them anyway. I predict a more selective fare war, with Delta responding just enough to keep its shrinking feeder service breaking even. Either way, travelers will get lower domestic fares.

Southwest is not really a super-low-fare airline any more, but until fares settle down there will be great bargains, and long-term the fares should be 30% less. Then, it will be Mr. Market who decides if Beaches can provide Southwest volume at those fares.

in reference to: Southwest, TDC inks pact in Dallas | panama, city, beach - Business - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Californians Comment on Krugman

2009-11-09T06:07:00.001-08:00

I am pasting this in from comments because its pretty close to my take and comments are "closed". thanks, Sidewiki.

When was the last time anyone in power questioned the massive outsourcing of US jobs and the heavy toll it is taking on the population? Oh, I remember! Obama, during his campaign, wanted to repeal NAFTA. But once it became apparent that he was going to be the winner he joined GWB and Paulson for massively stimulating Wall street at our expense and leaving us with nothing but prayers for trickle-down crumbs.

The truth is that when it comes to either political party, priorities are quite clear. The leadership of both parties exploits its base to the point of no return at any expense. The difference is that the GOP effectively manipulates right winger public emotions and anger to keep them loyal. Democrats, on the other hand, distract you and then steal your lunch.

in reference to:

"When was the last time anyone in power questioned the massive outsourcing of US jobs and the heavy toll it is taking on the population? Oh, I remember! Obama, during his campaign, wanted to repeal NAFTA. But once it became apparent that he was going to be the winner he joined GWB and Paulson for massively stimulating Wall street at our expense and leaving us with nothing but prayers for trickle-down crumbs.The truth is that when it comes to either political party, priorities are quite clear. The leadership of both parties exploits its base to the point of no return at any expense. The difference is that the GOP effectively manipulates right winger public emotions and anger to keep them loyal. Democrats, on the other hand, distract you and then steal your lunch."
- Paranoia Strikes Deep - Readers' Comments - NYTimes.com (view on Google Sidewiki)

Crosswing Runway

2009-11-07T06:45:00.001-08:00

If they don't build it, they still have to fill the big hole left behind by "site preparation", and the new contractor won't get to game the fill specifications the way Finch did. It's called "painting yourself into a corner".

in reference to: New airport's crosswind runway still planned but likely more expensive | new, airport, planned - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

In Response to Re: Airport boondoggle:

2009-11-04T08:55:00.001-08:00

How in the world do they think a toll road will benefit tourism? Let St. Joe pay for the road.
Posted by brian7

"they think" is an oxymoron - they simply obey. It is against St Joe's religion to pay for anything, thats why I was truly shocked when they ageed to the SW subsidy - I guess the clock just ran out on lobbying the legislature- and TDC's to foot THAT bill. The toll road seems particularly stupid since the traffic will already be thin - more likely it will be "sold" as a self-financing toll road, then reverted to the taxpayers when its "discovered" to be insolvent. In the long run everything works out, but toll roads at panhandle traffic levels just don't make sense in an economic timeframe of, say, 30 years.

and BTW, i don't agree that it's a good idea for Delta to monopolize the market - let it play out. I do hope Delta will compete for its share; there should be some profit zone between monopoly and capitulation. An interesting strategy for Delta would be to abandon NWFPCIA and use the savings and perhaps its own subsidy to go "all in" for this market with lower fares at VPS and perhaps Tallahassee. 3 years should be long enough to show if the NWFPCIA is viable, and we get to use the SW service. A lot of rent comes due in 2012.

in reference to:

"In Response to Re: Airport boondoggle:How in the world do they think a toll road will benefit tourism? Let St. Joe pay for the road. Posted by brian7"they think" is an oxymoron - they simply obey. It is against St Joe's religion to pay for anything, thats why I was truly shocked when they ageed to the SW subsidy - I guess the clock just ran out on lobbying the legislature- and TDC's to foot THAT bill. The toll road seems particularly stupid since the traffic will already be thin - more likely it will be "sold" as a self-financing toll road, then reverted to the taxpayers when its "discovered" to be insolvent. In the long run everything works out, but toll roads at panhandle traffic levels just don't make sense in an economic timeframe of, say, 30 years.and BTW, i don't agree that it's a good idea for Delta to monopolize the market - let it play out. I do hope Delta will compete for its share; there should be some profit zone between monopoly and capitulation. An interesting strategy for Delta would be to abandon NWFPCIA and use the savings and perhaps its own subsidy to go "all in" for this market with lower fares at VPS and perhaps Tallahassee. 3 years should be long enough to show if the NWFPCIA is viable, and we get to use the SW service. A lot of rent comes due in 2012."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Delta as competition

2009-11-02T09:42:00.001-08:00

I'm a famous skeptic, so I'll just wait and see who wants to do the bleeding - Delta or St Joe? Delta bled AirTran out of Tallahassee but at considerable cost and no St Joe backstop. Southwest has no risk other than mis-estimating their worst case and finding themselves really empty, down in the below-40% zone. That is possible in the intra-Florida and west-to-Texas markets, but unlikely northward. Delta's recent domestic traffic is a story of capitulating unless there is an international or corporate discounting tie-in.

One more comment about "Low Cost Airlines" and I'll go to the bench until we see some fare info around January. The difference between "LCC's" and "legacy" airlines is not as great as in the past because of the bankruptcy adjustments. Southwest pilots, for example, are paid 30% more than legacy pilots, and the absolute cost of "low fares" is not bus-fare cheap - SW's "average fare" of $113 is ONE WAY and does not include all fees. The out-of-pocket cost of a round trip is about $250 per person, higher to high-fee places like Denver and New York.

in reference to:

"I'm a famous skeptic, so I'll just wait and see who wants to do the bleeding - Delta or St Joe? Delta bled AirTran out of Tallahassee but at considerable cost and no St Joe backstop. Southwest has no risk other than mis-estimating their worst case and finding themselves really empty, down in the below-40% zone. That is possible in the intra-Florida and west-to-Texas markets, but unlikely northward. Delta's recent domestic traffic is a story of capitulating unless there is an international or corporate discounting tie-in.One more comment about "Low Cost Airlines" and I'll go to the bench until we see some fare info around January. The difference between "LCC's" and "legacy" airlines is not as great as in the past because of the bankruptcy adjustments. Southwest pilots, for example, are paid 30% more than legacy pilots, and the absolute cost of "low fares" is not bus-fare cheap - SW's "average fare" of $113 is ONE WAY and does not include all fees. The out-of-pocket cost of a round trip is about $250 per person, higher to high-fee places like Denver and New York."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

The Southwest and St Joe escape clauses

2009-11-02T00:07:00.001-08:00

Southwest was playing "hard to get" in this negotiation and had the strong hand, so I assume the $14M and $12M will protect SW down to their lowest forecasts, which should include peeling off 2/3 of Delta's PFN traffic and stimulating some more from surrounding markets. How much more goes to SW depends on Delta's fare response. If Delta does not defend VPS and allows SW to take half of that, SW could break even earlier than 3 years.

The "opt outs" should be set to protect both companies - JOE can opt out if SW just wants to bleed JOE in a hopeless deal, and SW can opt out even if JOE is willing to go deeper in losses than SW expects to grow out of in 3 years.

The wild card in this is not the competiton between markets and airlines, it is the economy that might not support any high volume traffic plan. Southwest is not breaking even nationally on its airline sales and must keep beating the fuel market with hedges until the economy is better. Delta is outright losing money although we have to assume they are profitable in monopoly markets. JOE is also unprofitable and borrowing to finance this deal. If the economy turns strong within 2 years, JOE and SW and the TDC's have helped each other through a rough patch; if not, give-away's cannot entice enough people to travel and buy premium or optional real estate.

The crucial assumption for the players is that transportation cost and insufficient advertising, rather than fundamental economics, is preventing growth and prosperity. There is no obvious "plan B" other than returning to the long term challenges of industry and education in a global and urban-centric economy.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

The Sidewiki Post that Caz took down

2009-10-30T08:48:00.001-07:00

I have started duplicating most of my comments on "Sidewiki", a Google service that puts them on a sidebar that the page owner can't remove or edit. Only other Sidewiki accounts can see the sidebar, but Google may be big enough to keep it going. It is kind of controversial as page owners obviously won't like it. It is the only way to comment on sites like "The New PFN" that don't enable comments. Get a pseudonymous Gmail account and take a look.

in reference to: The News Herald : Homepage (view on Google Sidewiki)

Mentioning Sidewiki costs me a Post

2009-10-30T06:53:00.001-07:00

This is getting WAY off topic, but the user guidelines are readily available.

THE WHOLE THING:
http://www.freedom.com/eula.html

THE MONEY PARAGRAPH:

Therefore, we reserve the right, but undertake no duty, to review, edit, move, or delete any User Content provided for display or placed on the Service, AT OUR SOLE AND ABSOLUTE DISCRETION (emphasis added by donhodges), without notice to the person who submitted such User Content.

Oh, it also says Freedom has unlimited rights to every word or derivative work. So, in view of these limited rights, I maybe should have an alternative way to comment (mentioning that apparently aroused Mr. ABSOLUTE DISCRETION).

I appreciate the forums and article comments, and I am one of few who makes my name obvious in most posts, here and elsewhere. This is the first time I have ever had a post taken down.

in reference to: Moving on to the next doomed project - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Advisory Appointments to Airport Board

2009-10-28T10:56:00.001-07:00

I AM NOT A LAWYER (thank God), but it is arguable that the appointments are not valid, if not illegal. The statute controlling the authority does not provide any advisory positions, nor a way for the members to appoint more than one position, nor for the membership to exceed 5 positions. Also, the boundaries of the special district are the same as the boundaries of Bay County, although the district can own property in other counties with their consent (this is necessary to locate ground-based navigation aids for instrument approaches in Washington County).

There is also language that says the authority can do almost anything business-wise to fulfill its public purpose, so it is essentially free to do anything not constrained by a court. For example, the district spent $millions designing its project on land it did not own at a time when its boundaries were confined to the present airport and Lynn Haven Industrial Park. It also pledged land it did not own as 50% share of FDOT grants, after inflating the "projects" to obtain 100% of the actual cost as a 50/50 grant.

The legislature has not exerted any oversight on the authority, and the only recourse for objection is the courts, wherein a plantiff can spend its own money while the authority uses grant money. It also leads to strange consequences like the Florida FDOT granting funds for the authority to pay fines to the Florida FDEP. That means asterisque has very little leverage, but does not mean he is "jumping" anywhere. From his posts I would guess he follows the issue as closely as anybody, and will enjoy flying Southwest too. This is about "process" and public responsibility, not blind obstruction.

in reference to:

"I AM NOT A LAWYER (thank God), but it is arguable that the appointments are not valid, if not illegal. The statute controlling the authority does not provide any advisory positions, nor a way for the members to appoint more than one position, nor for the membership to exceed 5 positions. Also, the boundaries of the special district are the same as the boundaries of Bay County, although the district can own property in other counties with their consent (this is necessary to locate ground-based navigation aids for instrument approaches in Washington County).There is also language that says the authority can do almost anything business-wise to fulfill its public purpose, so it is essentially free to do anything not constrained by a court. For example, the district spent $millions designing its project on land it did not own at a time when its boundaries were confined to the present airport and Lynn Haven Industrial Park. It also pledged land it did not own as 50% share of FDOT grants, after inflating the "projects" to obtain 100% of the actual cost as a 50/50 grant.The legislature has not exerted any oversight on the authority, and the only recourse for objection is the courts, wherein a plantiff can spend its own money while the authority uses grant money. It also leads to strange consequences like the Florida FDOT granting funds for the authority to pay fines to the Florida FDEP. That means asterisque has very little leverage, but does not mean he is "jumping" anywhere. From his posts I would guess he follows the issue as closely as anybody, and will enjoy flying Southwest too. This is about "process" and public responsibility, not blind obstruction."
- Moving on to the next doomed project - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Rep. Boyd's Top Contributors

2009-10-27T08:29:00.001-07:00

1 Pfizer Inc $12,563
2 American Assn of Orthopaedic Surgeons $10,000
2 AmeriPAC: The Fund for a Greater America $10,000
2 Blue Dog PAC $10,000
2 Florida Citrus Mutual $10,000
2 United Parcel Service $10,000
7 Koch Industries $9,000
8 Altria Group $8,500
8 National Restaurant Assn $8,500
10 Cauthen, Forbes & Williams $8,000
11 American College of Surgeons Prof Assn $7,500
11 Comcast Corp $7,500
11 PricewaterhouseCoopers $7,500
14 American Trucking Assns $7,000
14 Indep Insurance Agents & Brokers/America $7,000
14 Wal-Mart Stores $7,000
17 Aircraft Owners & Pilots Assn $6,000
17 Blue Cross/Blue Shield $6,000
17 National Assn of Broadcasters $6,000
20 Van Scoyoc Assoc $5,752

in reference to: The News Herald : Homepage (view on Google Sidewiki)

The Southwest Viewpoint

2009-10-25T23:01:00.001-07:00

Bill Owen is Southwest Route Planning Exec, and he said on the company blog (responding to several comments disappointed that Pensacola was not selected, and the relative weakness of the PFN market):

Good Thursday afternoon, everyone!

Thanks for all of the good wishes and support. And to those of you out there that are expressing disappointment that our new city announcement was not Pensacola, guys, please understand this was never a competition between the two. This was not an "either/or" decision. We know enough to understand that the two are distinct, different markets, and we remain interested in Pensacola. However, the combination of a new airport and the alliance with St. Joe led us to believe that it was time in May of 2010 to "do" Panama City.

Hope that explanation eases the disappointment! Keep those comments coming, and thanks!

Bill
Bill Owen — Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:25

Taking the airline viewpoint a little further, here's another way to look at it: SW had a profit of $178 M, a margin of 1.6% on $11 Billion revenue in 2008 INCLUDING $329 Million gained on fuel hedging. So, to earn $14 Million that St Joe sends in a wire transfer quarterly, SW would have to sell $875 Million in tickets over their system and continue to gain significantly on hedges.
This way they get the $14M on $20 to $30M in sales during a couple of difficult years overall. Not a bad deal. Delta used to sell an aging airplane or a delivery slot to stay profitable in a bad quarter (the good old days when Delta owned a lot of airplanes). The $8 or $10 M gain was like selling $500 Million more tickets at 2% margin, and for many years extended a run of profitable quarters.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Delta

2009-10-25T07:28:00.001-07:00

I don't think Delta will quit (among the reasons, Delta has contracts to sell tickets to the military at bulk fares) but they will cut back to the minimum service that supports international and military travel. The Memphis hub may not survive the Delta-Northwest merger once the labor issues are settled, but that decision would affect all Memphis service, not just PFN. Delta (and particularly "Delta Connection") have justly earned a bad reputation here, so 2 or 3 years in the wilderness is in order. When the market becomes rational again we'll see how they compete. Southwest has a subsidized laboratory to test the extent of the "Southwest Effect".
in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

I'm Conflicted but In for Now

2009-10-23T20:04:00.001-07:00

Too many sites (politicians, government, corporate propaganda) don't allow comments and are taking positions that demand discussion. I see the vast potential for abuse but I also see an opportunity to participate without an invitation.

If it becomes an embarrassment I'll have to reconsider, but for now I'm in.
in reference to: Doc Searls Weblog · Whose Side(wiki) Are You On? (view on Google Sidewiki)

More on the St Joe Deal

2009-10-22T06:01:00.001-07:00

JOE is guaranteeing up to $14M the first year and $12M the second year. At average fare of $114, each percentage point below break even costs $450,000 per year, so in order for JOE to be out $14M, LF would have to be 31 points below break-even. Break-even is around 70%, so actual LF would be about 40% or 54 passengers per 136 seat plane.

Since SW had all the leverage in this deal, 40% must be about the low end of their forecast for the market. If SW adjusts the break-even calculation for below-average fares, JOE could owe more/sooner. At $99 fare, break-even LF would go up to 80% and JOE's guarantee would max out at 50% LF or 68 passengers per plane. There will be such a sudden increase in seats that its hard to foresee the fares; it would take extremely low fares to fill the planes and below about $79 SW can't break-even with full planes.

Delta will probably cut back to a few flights to feed the international hubs, and these flights will have fares with low increments above the hub-to-intl-destination fare, but high domestic-destination fares to assure the planes can accommodate the intl demand. This is an extreme version of Delta's present fare policy that prices PFN-ATL very high to assure seats for all "beyond-ATL" traffic. Such a response by Delta will leave SW free to experiment with maximizing revenues under almost unlimited supply conditions, seeking a fare level that would be profitable after the JOE "put" is gone.
in reference to: 2009 October — The New PFN (view on Google Sidewiki)

Text of the JOE/Southwest 8-K

2009-10-21T21:00:00.001-07:00
On October 21, 2009, The St. Joe Company ("St. Joe") entered into a Strategic Alliance Agreement for Air Service with Southwest Airlines Co. ("Southwest"). Pursuant to the agreement, Southwest will provide air service to the new Northwest Florida international airport in Bay County consisting of at least two scheduled flights per day to each of four separate flight destinations in the Southwest network. The air service will commence on or about the opening of the new airport, which is currently scheduled for May 2010.
St. Joe owns hundreds of thousands of acres in the service area of the new airport, including approximately 71,000 acres of land surrounding the new airport. St. Joe believes that the introduction of low-cost air service to the region will make the region more accessible to a broader market and significantly enhance the value of these lands, as well as other St. Joe properties in Northwest Florida.
Given the current state of the U.S. economy and the airline industry, new airline service must be positioned as an economic development initiative with broad regional support. St. Joe has been working alongside a number of regional organizations in its effort to secure the financial commitments to support the new air service.
St. Joe has agreed, to the extent that Southwest operates at a loss, to make quarterly cash payments to Southwest to cover shortfalls in the results of Southwest's operations at the new airport during the first three years of service. For purposes of the break even calculation, the agreement establishes fixed amounts for Southwest's non-fuel expenses and the minimum revenues that will be attributable to the air service. It also provides that Southwest's profits from the air service during the term of the agreement will be shared with St. Joe up to the maximum amount of St. Joe's prior break even payments.
The term of the agreement extends for a period of three years after the commencement of Southwest's air service at the new airport. The agreement may be terminated by St. Joe if the payments to Southwest exceed $14 million in the first year of air service, or $12 million in the second year of air service. St. Joe may also terminate the agreement if Southwest has not commenced air service to the new airport within 90 days of its opening. Southwest may terminate the agreement if its actual annual revenues attributable to the air service at the new airport are less than certain minimum annual amounts established in the agreement.
Southwest's obligation to commence air service to the new airport is conditioned upon: (1) the certification of the new airport by the Federal Aviation Administration and the Transportation Security Administration on or before April 15, 2010; (2) receipt by the local Airport Authority of a certificate of occupancy for the new airport on or before April 15, 2010; (3) the execution of satisfactory agreements between Southwest and the Airport Authority authorizing Southwest to use and lease space at the new airport and to receive any cost mitigation measures that may be available from the Airport Authority; (4) the execution of an agreement between Southwest, the Bay County Tourist Development Council, the Panama City Beach Convention and Visitors Bureau and the Beaches of South Walton Tourist Development Council, no later than 30 days from the date of the agreement, regarding the coordination of marketing resources and efforts for the air service; (5) the execution of an agreement between Southwest and Coastal Vision 3000, no later than 60 days from the date of the agreement, regarding the establishment of a program through which Southwest would receive available room nights free of charge at various rental properties in Northwest Florida for use in the marketing efforts for the air service; and (6) the execution of any other agreement that Southwest deems necessary or appropriate prior to the commencement of the air service.
Southwest has agreed that it will not commence air service to any airport within 80 statute miles of the new airport during the term of the agreement. In the event Southwest starts service to any airport that is more than 80 statute miles but within 120 statute miles from the new airport during the term, Southwest and St. Joe will either negotiate a modification to the terms of the agreement to accommodate the impact of such service or the minimum revenues used in the annual break even calculations under the agreement will automatically be increased by 10%. In such event, Southwest has agreed that the air service to the new airport in Bay County would not be diminished.
Additional information may be found in St. Joe's press release dated October 21, 2009, a copy of which is filed as exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein.

St Joe Guarantees SW Break Even

2009-10-21T12:01:00.001-07:00

from a Dallas newspaper blog:

Gary Kelly just said it'll be its 69th city. So there you go. Close blog readers knew ahead of time, so that's your reward if you're reading us closely. May is the start for eight daily flights spread among four cities to be named later.

"I kind of feel like Oprah," Gary says, as he tells the news to an internet connection to the folks there in Florida.

"We have been overwhelmed by the amount of energy that Panhandle residents have put on Southwest Airlines to start service to that area," he said.

I've got to believe there's a very large incentive package coming to Southwest for this brand-new airport. Press release cites local tourism groups as part of the incentives.

There's a twist: They're doing a "strategic partnership" with the St. Joe Co. where the St. Joe Co. ensures that Southwest will break even on the service for the first three years. Very interesting. The risk was too high, Kelly said, since there's no history there. St. Joe Co. - a huge real estate entity in Florida -- will make up any differences to keep the service there. So they're basically buying the service, to some degree. Interesting.

The agreement gives St. Joe an out after 2 years if things are bad: Southwest can exit too under certain circumstances. "It's an innovative approach," Kelly said.
in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

BayBlogger - A Sidewiki Experiment

2009-10-20T08:36:00.000-07:00
I'm trying Google's Sidewiki, and this little blog is an archive of my sidewiki posts. Let's see where it goes...