Truly Green Serial Violator

The PR somehow fails to mention the airport is under two environmental consent orders from the Corps of Engineers and the Florida DEP. These orders and fines were not assessed for being "truly green."

in reference to: Jones Lang LaSalle Launches Web Site Highlighting Commercial Development Opportunities at New Airport — The New PFN (view on Google Sidewiki)

Brian vs. Zelda on 10,000 ft Runway

Brian,
Obviously you and Zelda cannot both be right if taken literally, but Zelda is "more right", because Southwest does operate from both Midway and John Wayne (Orange County CA, 5400 ft) every day without selecting airplanes for it. Because of its altitude, Midway's 6500 ft main runway is functionally the same as PFN's 6300 ft sea level runway. The charts you found are for the extreme condition of "maximum takeoff weight" which is usually "maximum fuel plus as much payload as possible with max fuel". This configuration is of interest only if the mission is maximum range, such as ferrying the airplane to Europe with only a crew. For passenger operations, the controlling configuration is "range with maximum payload (much less than max fuel)" and the 737's can obviously operate from Midway to the West Coast daily from less than 6500 ft. The 737-700 (most of SW fleet) can go to max payload/range from 5200 ft. To get these numbers, you have to read Boeing performance charts for the airplanes (these were online at some point but I'm not sure if still available). AirTran has recently announced 737-700 service to Key West (4800 ft).

This is all academic as to the Beaches airport, but its important to be careful with the facts. I have always said that the new airport should be 10,000 ft if it is to add any significant capability, because the old airport was capable of handling any likely domestic flight. The 757 has even better performance than the 737, going daily from Orange County to New York. The 10,000 ft runway only comes into play for intercontinental flights - it is not necessary for Canada or Mexico. No doubt St. Joe will charter some international 757/767 flights to promote its property and the airport. The long term hope is to attract an international industry that could use the airport for logistics.

The new airport will thus be more capable at the high end, where operations will be few. At the low end, where most of its takeoffs/landings are, it will be less capable because it has no crosswind runway needed over 100 days a year by light airplanes. The nearest alternative will be Marianna or Apalachicola; Panama City will be the largest city in the state with no community airport within 10 miles, having sold PFN for half the cost of grading the swamp at West Bay.

in reference to: FAA OKs runway extension | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Air Cargo

In Response to Air cargo:
I did some internet research yesterday on air cargo, widely touted as the goal of the 10,000 ft runway. We get back to what has been a major problem in creating economic progress in Bay County, and that is-- it takes an hour to get to the interestate--and that's way too long for many businesses/industries. It's a lasting problem that many believe was created by Dempsey Barron, when the I-10 route was planned, who preferred to give this important access to Marianna, where he had is farm / ranch business.
Posted by asterisque


First Dempsey Barron - I always get a charge out of "Dempsey Barron as Revered Leader". My daddy alleged that he delivered sugar to Dempsey's daddy's still in Bay Harbor - guess who was tending the fire. My own experience was it took him 40 years to 4-lane US 231 in Florida.

AIr Cargo - Today, air cargo is synonomous with Fedex and UPS. I have heard boosters say Fedex has plans to use NWFBIA; I have no idea if this is possible, but after the SW deal who knows anything (see my sig). An interesting exercise might be "clustering" the insourced foreign auto plants to see if there is a logical location for importing their high-value parts. Offhand I would guess Atlanta or perhaps Huntsville if they want a quieter airport.

There was a great enthusiasm for "intermodal cargo" back in the '70's when wide-body air freighters came out. Much academic work was done (including the infamous "Aerotropolis"), but one problem proved insurmountable: the weight of containers strong enough for sea-rail-truck was just not economic for air cargo. So sea-rail, sea-truck, and rail-truck intermodal cargo prospered and air cargo remained a niche for high-value and time-sensitive goods. The only sizeable intermodal market for air service is air-cruiseship, where the "payload" is self-contained. There is another story about the rise of package service vs. postal service, but it will wait for another day.
"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to:

"In Response to Air cargo:I did some internet research yesterday on air cargo, widely touted as the goal of the 10,000 ft runway.   <snip />   We get back to what has been a major problem in creating economic progress in Bay County, and that is-- it takes an hour to get to  the interestate--and that's way too long for many businesses/industries.  It's a lasting problem that many believe was created by Dempsey Barron, when the I-10 route was planned, who preferred to give this important access to Marianna, where he had is farm / ranch business.Posted by asterisqueFirst Dempsey Barron - I always get a charge out of "Dempsey Barron as Revered Leader".  My daddy alleged that he delivered sugar to Dempsey's daddy's still in Bay Harbor - guess who was tending the fire.  My own experience was it took him 40 years to 4-lane US 231 in Florida.AIr Cargo -  Today, air cargo is synonomous with Fedex and UPS.  I have heard boosters say Fedex has plans to use NWFBIA; I have no idea if this is possible, but after the SW deal who knows anything (see my sig).  An interesting exercise might be "clustering" the insourced foreign auto plants to see if there is a logical location for importing their high-value parts.  Offhand I would guess Atlanta or perhaps Huntsville if they want a quieter airport. There was a great enthusiasm for "intermodal cargo" back in the '70's when wide-body air freighters came out.  Much academic work was done (including the infamous "Aerotropolis"), but one problem proved insurmountable:  the weight of containers strong enough for sea-rail-truck was just not economic for air cargo.   So sea-rail, sea-truck, and rail-truck intermodal cargo prospered and air cargo remained a niche for high-value and time-sensitive goods.  The only sizeable intermodal market for air service is air-cruiseship, where the "payload" is self-contained. There is another story about the rise of package service vs. postal service, but it will wait for another day. "No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___"  -The Black SwanMy other blogs : http://donhodges.blogspot.com            (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)http://www.ecoastlife.com                      (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/  (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Environmental Debate

I'm too old to get in this debate, but old enough to report one observation: we had lots of tar balls on our (THE?)Beaches before the tanker ballast pumping ban. This observation goes back to 1948 or so.

Environmentally, things are both better and worse. Raw sewage and fish-cleaning offal flowed into the bay where the downtown marina is now, and industrial waste from the paper mill was staggering - both are much better now. Presently worse are the "non-point-source" effects of population growth, developing the shorelines, wetlands and sand dunes - these are basically irreversible without consensus on how development proceeds. Development aggravates the "Tragedy of the Commons", each one alone can show no (or too little to ban) harm, but the aggregate impact is the "death by a thousand cuts". Our waters are still biologically viable but others, like the St. Johns and Apalachicola rivers, are already threatened. The political response is to propose new categories of waters like "boatable/splashable". Where is the bottom line? - "viewable", "filterable", or even "burnable" like the Cleveland river that launched the clean water movement in 1969?

No upstream flows affect Bay County much - if it becomes foul, we have only ourselves accountable.

in reference to: Environmentalists: Look at Texas to see what's coming | texas, see, aransas - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Airport Board Game

Panama City is giving up not only its historic financial interest that is being sold for $50 Million (about half the cost of the poor grading work at NWFBIA), it has given up a close-in community airport and it now appears the regional airport will not replace the community airport's crosswind capacity that is needed by light planes over 100 days a year. As a critic (not a luddite opponent), I tried for years to get the board to finance the new airport separately and deliver two airports (the new one 10,000 feet) by seeking another $50 Million or so, or foregoing the crosswind. (Don't tell me an interest that can raise $250 Million can't get $300 Million, the cost escalation exceeds $150 Million and the consulting fees will approach $100 Million.) Much of the cost of the new airport is duplicating the general aviation facilities at PFN, probably better than a break-even offset if the crosswind runway is included. This is the plan Ft. Myers followed; SW Florida Regional had only one runway for 25 years, and still has no crosswind because Page Field is still in Ft. Myers and heavily used. When this is over, Panama City will be the only sizeable city in Florida without a paved and instrumented community airport within 10 miles. Even Okaloosa has two paved general aviation airports, even though Eglin AFB dominates the airspace and hosts the airline terminal.

I'll never understand why the boosters launched this project with a fear mongering campaign that assumed the public was easier to fool than to persuade.

The winners get to write history and the new airport's deal with Southwest is a resounding winner. That does not mean there was never a competitive alternative with the same outcome.

As for the board, it really doesn't matter - the airport is influenced much more by external interests - just like every other political honey pot.

in reference to: Airport board game - EDITORIAL - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Southwest vs Delta

I think SW sees a no-lose opportunity to carve a piece out of Delta.

The easiest way for it to work is if Delta does not respond with serious fare reductions, especially at Northwest FL Regional (VPS). If SW gets half of the present VPS traffic in addition to a large share of PFN's, SW will be well within the revenue guaranteed by JOE, and the TDC subsidy adds some to the momentum.

If Delta is willing to bleed, say, $30 million a year for 2 years (double JOE's subsidy), it will be up to JOE/SW to decide how long all 3 (Delta, JOE, and perhaps SW in the 3rd year) will bleed. Delta did this to AirTran in Tallahassee, but AirTran was losing its own money, is not as big as Southwest, and it was head-to-head to Atlanta. An interesting move for Delta would be to cut back to only feeding the international traffic from Beaches airport, and seek its own subsidy to slash fares at VPS or just slash them anyway. I predict a more selective fare war, with Delta responding just enough to keep its shrinking feeder service breaking even. Either way, travelers will get lower domestic fares.

Southwest is not really a super-low-fare airline any more, but until fares settle down there will be great bargains, and long-term the fares should be 30% less. Then, it will be Mr. Market who decides if Beaches can provide Southwest volume at those fares.

in reference to: Southwest, TDC inks pact in Dallas | panama, city, beach - Business - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Californians Comment on Krugman

I am pasting this in from comments because its pretty close to my take and comments are "closed". thanks, Sidewiki.

When was the last time anyone in power questioned the massive outsourcing of US jobs and the heavy toll it is taking on the population? Oh, I remember! Obama, during his campaign, wanted to repeal NAFTA. But once it became apparent that he was going to be the winner he joined GWB and Paulson for massively stimulating Wall street at our expense and leaving us with nothing but prayers for trickle-down crumbs.

The truth is that when it comes to either political party, priorities are quite clear. The leadership of both parties exploits its base to the point of no return at any expense. The difference is that the GOP effectively manipulates right winger public emotions and anger to keep them loyal. Democrats, on the other hand, distract you and then steal your lunch.

in reference to:

"When was the last time anyone in power questioned the massive outsourcing of US jobs and the heavy toll it is taking on the population? Oh, I remember! Obama, during his campaign, wanted to repeal NAFTA. But once it became apparent that he was going to be the winner he joined GWB and Paulson for massively stimulating Wall street at our expense and leaving us with nothing but prayers for trickle-down crumbs.The truth is that when it comes to either political party, priorities are quite clear. The leadership of both parties exploits its base to the point of no return at any expense. The difference is that the GOP effectively manipulates right winger public emotions and anger to keep them loyal. Democrats, on the other hand, distract you and then steal your lunch."
- Paranoia Strikes Deep - Readers' Comments - NYTimes.com (view on Google Sidewiki)

Crosswing Runway

If they don't build it, they still have to fill the big hole left behind by "site preparation", and the new contractor won't get to game the fill specifications the way Finch did. It's called "painting yourself into a corner".

in reference to: New airport's crosswind runway still planned but likely more expensive | new, airport, planned - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

In Response to Re: Airport boondoggle:

How in the world do they think a toll road will benefit tourism? Let St. Joe pay for the road.
Posted by brian7


"they think" is an oxymoron - they simply obey. It is against St Joe's religion to pay for anything, thats why I was truly shocked when they ageed to the SW subsidy - I guess the clock just ran out on lobbying the legislature- and TDC's to foot THAT bill. The toll road seems particularly stupid since the traffic will already be thin - more likely it will be "sold" as a self-financing toll road, then reverted to the taxpayers when its "discovered" to be insolvent. In the long run everything works out, but toll roads at panhandle traffic levels just don't make sense in an economic timeframe of, say, 30 years.

and BTW, i don't agree that it's a good idea for Delta to monopolize the market - let it play out. I do hope Delta will compete for its share; there should be some profit zone between monopoly and capitulation. An interesting strategy for Delta would be to abandon NWFPCIA and use the savings and perhaps its own subsidy to go "all in" for this market with lower fares at VPS and perhaps Tallahassee. 3 years should be long enough to show if the NWFPCIA is viable, and we get to use the SW service. A lot of rent comes due in 2012.

in reference to:

"In Response to Re: Airport boondoggle:How in the world do they think a toll road will benefit tourism?   Let St. Joe pay for the road.  Posted by brian7"they think" is an oxymoron - they simply obey.  It is against St Joe's religion to pay for anything, thats why I was truly shocked when they ageed to the SW subsidy - I guess the clock just ran out on lobbying the legislature- and TDC's to foot THAT bill.  The toll road seems particularly stupid since the traffic will already be thin - more likely it will be "sold" as a self-financing toll road, then reverted to the taxpayers when its "discovered" to be insolvent.  In the long run everything works out, but toll roads at panhandle traffic levels just don't make sense in an economic timeframe of, say, 30 years.and BTW, i don't agree that it's a good idea for Delta to monopolize the market - let it play out.  I do hope Delta will compete for its share; there should be some profit zone between monopoly and capitulation.  An interesting strategy for Delta would be to abandon NWFPCIA and use the savings and perhaps its own subsidy to go "all in" for this market with lower fares at VPS and perhaps Tallahassee.  3 years should be long enough to show if the NWFPCIA is viable, and we get to use the SW service.  A lot of rent comes due in 2012."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Delta as competition

I'm a famous skeptic, so I'll just wait and see who wants to do the bleeding - Delta or St Joe? Delta bled AirTran out of Tallahassee but at considerable cost and no St Joe backstop. Southwest has no risk other than mis-estimating their worst case and finding themselves really empty, down in the below-40% zone. That is possible in the intra-Florida and west-to-Texas markets, but unlikely northward. Delta's recent domestic traffic is a story of capitulating unless there is an international or corporate discounting tie-in.

One more comment about "Low Cost Airlines" and I'll go to the bench until we see some fare info around January. The difference between "LCC's" and "legacy" airlines is not as great as in the past because of the bankruptcy adjustments. Southwest pilots, for example, are paid 30% more than legacy pilots, and the absolute cost of "low fares" is not bus-fare cheap - SW's "average fare" of $113 is ONE WAY and does not include all fees. The out-of-pocket cost of a round trip is about $250 per person, higher to high-fee places like Denver and New York.

in reference to:

"I'm a famous skeptic, so I'll just wait and see who wants to do the bleeding - Delta or St Joe?  Delta bled AirTran out of Tallahassee but at considerable cost and no St Joe backstop.  Southwest has no risk other than mis-estimating their worst case and finding themselves really empty, down in the below-40% zone.  That is possible in the intra-Florida and west-to-Texas markets, but unlikely northward.  Delta's recent domestic traffic is a story of capitulating unless there is an international or corporate discounting tie-in.One more comment about "Low Cost Airlines" and I'll go to the bench until we see some fare info around January.  The difference between "LCC's" and "legacy" airlines is not as great as in the past because of the bankruptcy adjustments.  Southwest pilots, for example, are paid 30% more than legacy pilots, and the absolute cost of "low fares" is not bus-fare cheap - SW's "average fare" of $113 is ONE WAY and does not include all fees.  The out-of-pocket cost of a round trip is about $250 per person, higher to high-fee places like Denver and New York."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

The Southwest and St Joe escape clauses

Southwest was playing "hard to get" in this negotiation and had the strong hand, so I assume the $14M and $12M will protect SW down to their lowest forecasts, which should include peeling off 2/3 of Delta's PFN traffic and stimulating some more from surrounding markets. How much more goes to SW depends on Delta's fare response. If Delta does not defend VPS and allows SW to take half of that, SW could break even earlier than 3 years.

The "opt outs" should be set to protect both companies - JOE can opt out if SW just wants to bleed JOE in a hopeless deal, and SW can opt out even if JOE is willing to go deeper in losses than SW expects to grow out of in 3 years.

The wild card in this is not the competiton between markets and airlines, it is the economy that might not support any high volume traffic plan. Southwest is not breaking even nationally on its airline sales and must keep beating the fuel market with hedges until the economy is better. Delta is outright losing money although we have to assume they are profitable in monopoly markets. JOE is also unprofitable and borrowing to finance this deal. If the economy turns strong within 2 years, JOE and SW and the TDC's have helped each other through a rough patch; if not, give-away's cannot entice enough people to travel and buy premium or optional real estate.

The crucial assumption for the players is that transportation cost and insufficient advertising, rather than fundamental economics, is preventing growth and prosperity. There is no obvious "plan B" other than returning to the long term challenges of industry and education in a global and urban-centric economy.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)