Survivor Bias

aster,
You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive.

About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one.


asterisque wrote:
When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)
In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county.

Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds.

in reference to:

"aster,You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive. About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one. 1/26/2010 10:31 AM CST on newsherald.com Recommend (3) Report Abuse Permalink asterisque wrote: When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county. Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds."
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Calm Discussion

Carlmbennett,
first, thanks for the calm discussion!

I agree the project is progressing and all the prior disputes are moot. That does not relieve the project team of its obligations, legal and ethical, to do what they proposed and agreed to do, and further agreed some more under enforcement. So far it is not happening. I think that falls under your "execution of the West Bay Sector Plan in a balanced manner that protects the West Bay estuarine environment" - which is the subject of this News Herald article.


Over and out...

in reference to:

"Carlmbennett,first, thanks for the calm discussion!I agree the project is progressing and all the prior disputes are moot. That does not relieve the project team of its obligations, legal and ethical, to do what they proposed and agreed to do, and further agreed some more under enforcement. So far it is not happening. I think that falls under your "execution of the West Bay Sector Plan in a balanced manner that protects the West Bay estuarine environment" - which is the subject of this News Herald article. Over and out..."
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Old Timers

carlmbennett,
I too am a 3rd generation old-timer, born here in 1938, and I started into this just about where you are ("what's the big deal?"), but the deeper I looked the stranger it got, especially since I know a bit about airports and also spend a fair amount of time on the bay. I would count at least 3 of the airport board members as friends, but they they have allowed corporate welfare politics and high-powered consultants to create a mess if not an enviro crisis that was totally unnecessary. If they get this mysterious drainage system to work, we may eventually see the watershed recover. If not,they have set in motion the decline of the very natural resources that are attractive to visitors (and by extension to Southwest Airlines and those mythic clean job industries). The world is full of attractive destinations and nobody knows which specific insult will be the one that kills the golden goose, but our "community leaders" seem determined to find the limit.
Court testimony says this project is perhaps the last large scale frontal assault on the Gulf Coast wetland environment, and the precedent it sets almost guarantees it will get worse. Someday people will look at Bay County and say "Wow! How did did such a beautiful place stay so beautiful?" OR "How did such a beautiful place (like Tampa Bay, the Everglades, the St Johns River, the Apalachicola River) become THIS, we have to clean it up"! I don't want to be on the wrong side of that choice, so I pay attention to what is said vs. done, photograph the creeks, call DEP and FAA when things look strange, and record the outcomes vs. the claims. As someone said, "The facts are friendly"; I will let the facts speak for themselves.

"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to: Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Censorship

f you want permanent posts, crosspost to a sidewiki - its a Google svc that places a post alongside the web page. You have to join sidewiki to read them there but they are also posted to a Blogger blog where they are linked back to the page. Here's mine:
http://donhodges.blogspot.com/

Hope this stays up - the only post I ever had deleted was about sidewiki. Its to an editor like a wooden cross to vampire, since IT CAN'T BE EDITED.

UPDATE: THIS POST WAS  DELETED FROM THE NEWS HERALD COMMENTS.
in reference to:

"f you want permanent posts, crosspost to a sidewiki - its a Google svc that places a post alongside the web page.  You have to join sidewiki to read them there but they are also posted to a Blogger blog where they are linked back to the page.  Here's mine:http://donhodges.blogspot.com/Hope this stays up - the only post I ever had deleted was about sidewiki.  Its to an editor like a wooden cross to vampire, since IT CAN'T BE EDITED."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

LaGuardia was also built in a swamp

"NYC locals tell me LaGuardia was also built in a swamp."

Now THAT's encouraging. LaGuardia is also about the airport PFN could have been expanded to without complications, and it has 21 million passengers a year.

Both facts moot now, but there has been a lot of abuse of the truth. Now they say they will keep PFN open while they finish ECP, a 2-airport plan they swore several times could not be done. If ECP had started out as minimum-footprint 1-runway, the enviro problems would have been minimized. Now we get ANOTHER hyper-development at the PFN site.
1/23/2010 5:23 PM CST

in reference to:

""NYC locals tell me LaGuardia was also built in a swamp."Now THAT's encouraging. LaGuardia is also about the airport PFN could have been expanded to without complications, and it has 21 million passengers a year.Both facts moot now, but there has been a lot of abuse of the truth. Now they say they will keep PFN open while they finish ECP, a 2-airport plan they swore several times could not be done. If ECP had started out as minimum-footprint 1-runway, the enviro problems would have been minimized. Now we get ANOTHER hyper-development at the PFN site. 1/23/2010 5:23 PM CST"
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Not an Act of God

This is not an act of God, it is failing to do rudimentary civil engineering and heavy construction practices. The only way to control storm water on a site this big is to subdivide it and phase the construction, establishing drainage and turf in manageable tracts. Once 1300 acres were cleared and worked without immediately restoring some grass, it got out of control. The amount of silt in Burnt Mill Creek last April and this week is nothing like the localized runoff from a small site - it is massive on a watershed scale. There is also 10 miles of bare shoulders on CR388 due to the widening project; the surface water in the north ditches, which flows from the wetlands, is clear. In the south ditches, it is silt. The state and county regulations are not severe and they depend on the professionals involved to use the best practices. Where this is done, huge silt blow-outs don't happen. The airport has already signed two consent orders admitting these violations to DEP, it is not just a bunch of kibitzers with opinions.

Our bay system is self-contained; we have no Atlanta or Pittsburg upstream to spoil it. If it is ruined, we ruined it. If it is protected by "state-of-the-art" environmental technology, we protected it.

For now, I believe my lying eyes and I have photos to prove it - "we" are trashing these creeks.

Photos from CR388 and the creeks, Thursday Jan. 21:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

Aerial Photos of ECP project, Friday Jan. 22:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/ECPJan22_10?h=0305cd

in reference to: Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Comment on News Herald Story 1-21-10

carl,

I took a series of pictures along 388 yesterday, and I can assure you the broad area drainage is strikingly cleaner than the Morrell Branch drainage corridor from ECP site to Burnt Mill - THERE IS NO DOUBT THE SILTATION OF BURNT MILL CREEK IS FROM FAILURES OF THE ECP SITE DRAINAGE. We will probably have aerial pictures to confirm this today, and DEP is also on site compiling conditions.

I think the airport board and St Joe can be proud of their Southwest Airlines recruitment, but they are botching their construction project. Also, the 10 miles of widening CR388 has laid bare muddy shoulders eroding south toward West Bay and St Joe's RiverCamps. When the impact starts affecting land values, they will both wake up -about 20 years too late.

A few of my pictures are at:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

in reference to:

"carl,I took a series of pictures along 388 yesterday, and I can assure you the broad area drainage is strikingly cleaner than the Morrell Branch drainage corridor from ECP site to Burnt Mill - THERE IS NO DOUBT THE SILTATION OF BURNT MILL CREEK IS FROM FAILURES OF THE ECP SITE DRAINAGE. We will probably have aerial pictures to confirm this today, and DEP is also on site compiling conditions.I think the airport board and St Joe can be proud of their Southwest Airlines recruitment, but they are botching their construction project. Also, the 10 miles of widening CR388 has laid bare muddy shoulders eroding south toward West Bay and St Joe's RiverCamps. When the impact starts affecting land values, they will both wake up -about 20 years too late.A few of my pictures are at:http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc"
- Airport officials fight stormwater | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Jan 21 - Another Storm Water Blowout

It appears we are having another April 2009-scale blowout to Burnt Mill creek. This photo, taken today, is looking southeastward from the CR 388 bridge. Mud jello. More fines.
Posted by asterisque


Here's a link to a few more photos along CR388. The road widening has 10 miles of muddy shoulders eroding to the south, in addition to the airport blowout. Note the intracoastal waterway is a bit colored but not "chocolate milk." Also a couple of signposts along the way...

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to:

"It appears we are having another April 2009-scale blowout to Burnt Mill creek.  This photo, taken today, is looking southeastward from the CR 388 bridge.   Mud jello.  More fines.Posted by asterisqueHere's a link to a few more photos along CR388.  The road widening has 10 miles of muddy shoulders eroding to the south, in addition to the airport blowout.  Note the intracoastal waterway is a bit colored but not "chocolate milk."  Also a couple of signposts along the way...http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc "No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___"  -The Black SwanMy other blogs : http://donhodges.blogspot.com            (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)http://www.ecoastlife.com                      (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/  (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)