Survivor Bias

aster,
You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive.

About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one.


asterisque wrote:
When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)
In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county.

Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds.

in reference to:

"aster,You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive. About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one. 1/26/2010 10:31 AM CST on newsherald.com Recommend (3) Report Abuse Permalink asterisque wrote: When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county. Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds."
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