Wish List

UPDATE:  ECP now has free wifi.  well done!

Free airport wifi, like these other Florida airports:

Florida

Daytona Beach Airport - signal availability reported in Ticketing Area - Daytona Beach
Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport - all terminals - Ft. Lauderdale
Southwest Florida International Airport - Ft.Myers
Okaloosa Regional Airport - Fort Walton Beach
Gainesville Regional Airport - Gainesville
Jacksonville Airport - Jacksonville
Key West International - Key West
LaBelle Municipal Airport - LaBelle
Melbourne International Airport - Melbourne
Orlando International Airport - all public areas and the "Cell Phone" parking lot - Orlando
Palm Beach International - Palm Beach
Pensacola Gulf Coast Regional Airport - Pensacola
Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport - Sarasota
Tallahassee Airport - Tallahassee
Tampa International - main building and both satellite terminals - Tampa
Palm Beach International Airport - West Palm Beach

16 out of 20 have it - where's ECP??
in reference to:

"Free airport wifi, like these other Florida airports:"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

In Response to Re: Old airport to cost YOU $230 million!

From the "airport boondoggle" NH forum:
The redevelopment of the Panama City-Bay County International Airport property will cause further stress on already constrained SR 390 (St. Andrews Blvd.). Improvements to 390 have been evaluated by FDOT District 3, with the estimated cost being $230,754,000."


It would be insane to 4-lane SR 390 (so they will probably do it!). For once, JOE's influence might save some money, since 390 does nothing for JOE. It is a reliever road for US 231-and-west-to-PCB, a route whose time is past. The thrust of development is now the SR 388 arc from US 231 to SR 79 and the future west-of-79 JOE-road.

As the old route withers, Leucadia will inherit the present capacity of 390 as it is freed up from traffic bound from 231 toward the south end of SR 79. From Lynn Haven, it is already a toss-up to choose 390/98 west vs. 77/388/79/98. With any congestion in the Hathaway bridge area, 77/388/79/98 is clearly faster.

in reference to:

"Re: Old airport to cost YOU $230 million!"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Letter to Editor - "Faux Green" - Fake Recycling Bins

Couldn't have said it better myself. The fake recycling bins can join the serial wetland and storm water violations that attest to the cynicism of this board and management. The airport needs to quit representing itself as an environmental improvement - that was just a ploy to co-opt some opposition, and now its an embarassment.

The airport needs to proceed on its merits - environmental benefit is NOT one of them and never has been.

in reference to:

"Letter to Editor - "Faux Green" - Fake Recycling Bins posted at 8/15/2010 7:53 AM CDT"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

General aviation pilots say they are in limbo at old airport

The irony is that FAA, the airport and its consultants declared repeatedly that both airports could not operate simultaneously, despite many contrary examples such as Okaloosa county (two civil airports and numerous military airports).

Why did the "leadership" take the negative fear-mongering approach instead of just going out and building a better airline airport for much less money, leaving an irreplaceable community airport in place? Panama City is now the only sizeable city in Florida without a paved/instrumented community airport within 10 miles.

in reference to:

"General aviation pilots say they are in limbo at old airport"
- GA pilots say they're in limbo at old airport | say, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New DEP Fines for ECP

Just can't get this green project finished without serial violations...

in reference to:

"DEP levies new fines against airport board"
- DEP levies new fines | west, bay, dep - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Congratulations ECP

Southwest has made a huge impact and is definitely the "secret sauce". I am more surprised to see Delta respond vigorously and also do well. This is impressive traffic in a weak economy, and I'll have serving of that crow. It does not excuse the waste and abuse of resources that are still occurring, but strong revenues can overcome a lot of problems.


The next big test is autumn and winter. When Delta had more service here circa 1995, it did great in the summer and very weak in winter for an overall 55 percent load factor. Delta has the option to reduce service in the winter as usual, but Southwest's deal with St Joe is for 4 nonstop destinations and 2 departures to each daily. Not sure how much flexibility in that, but right now they are on a roll and congrats are in order.

in reference to: Airport numbers soar | airport, bay, numbers - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Amazing June Traffic

I hope everyone will click to view the passenger activity report on the nearby link. It is, frankly, amazing. Year over year, triple the seats AND triple the passengers. I'm not surprised Southwest is 80% full on a new service, but am surprised Delta held 78%, and most surprised the lousy economy can produce this much traffic. The airport should quickly try to learn the origins and destinations (particularly the regional origins) of these passengers. It will take significant effort to hold them in the winter.

On the construction side, revenues will cure a lot of problems and there probably will be enough money to settle with Finch and the DEP. The creeks, however, can't use money - they are on their own.
in reference to: Finch: Airport owes me $10 million in back pay | west, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Getting over myself

737,
You've got me on Southwest; I was shocked they took this deal (and more shocked that St Joe offered it) and I'm trying to stay out of it until they go through a winter here. Delta tried it for several years and never could get either the winter or east-west routes to work. I am sure I was right on the fundamentals, but didn't foresee a big subsidy. I have also been surprised that Delta has responded pretty well on price and larger planes. There is always a larger market at lower prices, but ECP is starting from a very modest base and it remains to be seen if all the new seats will be profitable.

Re: Finch
Phoenix (and the tiers of consultants) are in the end independent contractors. If the Owner of the project does not manage its contractors, then the contractors will manage as they see fit, and the result is what you see here. Several of the board members are friends or acquantances of mine, and I urged them years ago to hire a "gunslinger" to run a tight ship if they were going to do this.

Re: Sandy Creek
Sandy Creek is short, not instrumented, has no facilities for sophisticated airplanes, and is in the shadow of Tyndall's conventional and drone operations. It is not viable for any but rudimentary recreational pilots. The obvious plan for ECP was the "Ft Myers model" of building a 1-runway airline-centric airport (hopefully in a better location and using better practices) and keeping PFN for its unique value as a large GA airport like Page Field in Ft Myers. Instead they gave PFN away for less than the cost to replace its GA facilities. The only reason I ever saw for this was that consultant Bechtel wanted the largest possible project (and fees).

RE: Getting Over
My interest in this was originally professional curiosity, but after a while it got so curious that I received a broad education in corporate welfare, political intrigue, greed and regulatory capture. I never wanted to kill it but I thought it could be done a lot better and the only way to be heard was in the legal process. It is not personal with me, and I hope it is successful, whatever that means. It cannot fail aviation-wise because the State of Florida is on the hook and it has started with a gift of all previous aviation development in the county. As for the enviro objectives, they are just window dressing and cannot possibly be realized (develop 4000 acres of swamp/scrub pine + surroundings + re-develop 700 acres of waterfront/marina with a "net enviromental benefit"?).

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

My comment on FBO failure to launch

In Response to Re: Airport loses a key business:
Omen of more pullouts to come? The print version today includes a story about how the airport is losing a key industry planned for the new airport--the fixed-base operation (FBO).
Posted by asterisque


"Regency " was the new FBO, but the incumbent FBO "Sheltair" is still stumbling through a start-up with no facilities. A friend says they expect to lose money for 5 years even with a monopoly.

Meanwhile, remnants of general aviation continue operating at PFN, despite the repeated testimony that two civil airports could not safely operate in Bay County. That was before this brain trust failed to complete ECP for general aviation. Oh well, they will (eventually) have hurricane spec hangars to store their planes in crosswinds.

These board guys could never understand that GA is not just "recreation for the rich", it supports many businesses and public needs such as organ transplants, air ambulances, and transient military light aircraft. Panama City is now the largest city in Florida with no instrumented community airport.
"No evidence of _" is not the same as "Evidence of no _" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)

http://donaldhodges.com (Don Hodges: BayBlog)

in reference to:

"Re: Airport loses a key business"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Airport to spend $5 million for stormwater fix

The airport board fulfilled my prediction they will add $5 - $10 million to the Finch contract before "settling" all construction issues in a year or two. NOBODY will ever testify under oath, but it will be another windfall for lawyers and "mediators".

Party on...

in reference to:

"Airport to spend $5 million for stormwater fix"
- Airport to spend $5 million for stormwater fix | west, airport, fix - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New FBO at airport might fall through

June 4, 2010
Well, that didn't take long - investors have pulled the plug on the "Regency" FBO, leaving Sheltair as the sole FBO (to open "real soon now"). This has been Sheltair's plan all along and the Airport Board has supported it with financing and eminent domain condemnation of the sole compettitor, Precision.

in reference to: Freedom - Panama City, Friday, June 04, 2010 - ActivePaper Daily by Olive Software (view on Google Sidewiki)

Regency FBO

I would place a small wager that Regency won't build.

in reference to: Discussions On-Going With Fixed-Base Operator — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Southwest Bookings "Stronger than Expected"

http://newpcairport.com/2010/05/southwest-bookings-ahead-of-expectations/

On Contract Wrangling - Its Profitable

In a private contract, SOMEBODY ultimately is accountable. In a public contract like this, EVERYBODY is served by wrangling on and on. There is still much more money to be made by lawyers, arbitrators, consultants, etc. and the board will ultimately pay everybody off because 1) they don't want all the dirty laundry in court and 2) IT'S NOT THEIR MONEY. The only risk to the board is their reputation and that is OK with all the Chamber types. They could care less about "spectators" even if we embarrass them occasionally.

We are nowhere near the bottom yet - order some more ink, Caz.

in reference to:

"Airport Authority sticks with Finch"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

News Herald: Airport Grand Jury?

THAT would sell some papers.

in reference to:

"The Airport Authority last week was backed into a corner"
- Rough landing - EDITORIAL - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

It Will Be An Airport City

Archiving another big-puffery claim for the airport...

in reference to:

"“It will be an airport city,” says airport director Randy Curtis."
- Florida Trend Touts Economic Potential of New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

More Misinformation - FOX Business News

The host on the video says the present airport (which is as long as Chicago-Midway) can't handle a 737, and Dan Rowe agrees that 737's can't be fully loaded, both false. Southwest 737's can easily operate to the 4 destinations being offered from 6300 ft. The new service is a huge win but boosters are never satisfied with the truth, they seem to have to bash our existing communities.

in reference to: Fox Business News Reports on New Florida Beaches International Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Why design an Airport for 50 Years?

Question for Mr. Willett: Why would you design an airport for 50 years? Many have been in place since the beginning of aviation, about 100 years, and locally Tyndall and Eglin are passing 70 years. I have said (and written to these consultants) repeatedly that the plans should be for 100 years. Even the estimable St. Joe Company says 50 years is just the beginning.

in reference to:

"Officials differ on airport rock impact"
- Officials differ on airport rock impact | rock, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

St. Joe Contributes Again

St. Joe makes another contribution - an unforgettable name for east West Bay.

in reference to:

"St. Joe names commercial property at new airport"
- St. Joe names commercial property at new airport | property, airport, commercial - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

"We've got a Mess Here"

Just archiving the latest fiasco - off-spec materials.

in reference to:

"'We've got a mess here'"
- Airport board learns of new problems | problems, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

SW Effect has to be HUGE to Orlando and Houston

I'm trying to bite my tongue about Southwest, but I truly don't understand how they break even to/from Orlando and Houston (I think they will do OK with Nashville and Baltimore because of substantial "beyond" connections). Today, Delta (the only airline in town) carries an average of FIVE passengers to Houston daily through Atlanta, and EIGHT daily to Orlando through Atlanta. On May 23, SW will offer 278 seats to each city daily. Where do the extra 270 per day - 100,000 per year! - come from?

in reference to:

"I'm trying to bite my tongue about Southwest, but I truly don't understand how they break even to/from Orlando and Houston (I think they will do OK with Nashville and Baltimore because of substantial "beyond" connections). Today, Delta (the only airline in town) carries an average of FIVE passengers to Houston daily through Atlanta, and EIGHT daily to Orlando through Atlanta. On May 23, SW will offer 278 seats to each city daily. Where do the extra 270 per day - 100,000 per year! - come from?"
- Airport shifts from dream to reality - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

St Joe and New Targets

Another puff piece - notice the "target industries" keep changing?

in reference to:

"St. Joe Company Invested in Success of New Airport"
- St. Joe Company Invested in Success of New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

archiving this Link

Archiving this link...

in reference to: News Herald Editorial Contemplates Impact of New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

ECP channels "Acopolypse Now"

As Mark Twain said, "never argue with a man who buys ink by the barrel", but I'll never learn I guess. I am archiving these articles at donhodges.blogspot.com ; in a year or so we'll get back together to review the outcome. As I have said from the beginning, I will be happy to be proven wrong (already wrong once when JOE actually put some money in the pot for Southwest - that's ordinarily against their religion).

Caz, you need to read the DEP Consent Orders keeping in mind that the last thing DEP wants is to impede this project. To incur $2.5Million in fines from this captive agency takes some egregious violations. Just for starters I'll bet you a cold one you can't find a station that recorded 20 inches of rain in April 2009. This was not a failure of methods - there were NO methods in place until DEP was embarrassed into doing PART of their job. Nevertheless, when time got short DEP relaxed the limits to allow draining the quivering ponds. How can they do this? - By inviting a professional engineer to certify the quivering ponds were life-threatening! (I'm not making this up). And of course they found an engineer to certify that for a fee.


It's like "Acopolypse Now":

Col. Kurtz: Are my methods unsound?
Capt. Willard: I don't see any methods, sir.

in reference to: Airport shifts from dream to reality - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Archiving Caz on ECP

For future reference and follow up.

in reference to:

"CAZ: Airport shifts from dream to reality"
- Airport shifts from dream to reality - CAZ - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Annual Investor Letter of Leucadia (PFN Buyer)

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/29686630-C-P2009.pdf

in reference to: Economic Experts Discuss New Airport’s Job Creation Potential — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Crisis in Confidence?

This story on the business potential of ECP is pretty downbeat. JOE says "more investments!".

An investment should have a return similar to the interest on its debt. ECP borrows at about 4.6 percent, so how much should it "earn" on its $400 Million invested to date? If it earns nothing, the imputed debt will double in 14 years and re-double every 14 years after that.

The power of compound interest means that a mis-allocated large public "investment" becomes a huge millstone hanging on the economy if it does not perform FROM THE BEGINNING.

These political 'investments" are never audited to see if they perform; instead, they are absorbed as "baseline" and more and more resources poured in.

Just some musings on this story to mark it for a reality check in the future.

in reference to:

"But development takes time, officials say"
- Biz conference: New airport to spur future job growth | ecp, fla - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Stormwater in the Marsh

RMA and Ms. Couch are not the bad guys here; DEP has relented to pressures to "get 'er done" despite abject failure of the "green" plan. I took my boat up there Friday, and in fairness I agree the needle marsh is not endangered at this point. Morell Branch, however, will never be the same - it is now a drainage ditch. DEP has relaxed their permit limits so much that water which is distinctly turbid (15 NTU) is now allowed as "natural background" and water at the limits (44 NTU) would be outright muddy. There is also a layer of tan silt coating the bottom and the roots of the marsh. I shot some not-great video clips, available here (they take some time to stream, but they are just a few seconds except "873" which is 2 minutes):

if you know these blackwater creeks, you must agree this discharge is bad. Unfortunately, the standard now is "legal", not doing the right thing.


http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010870.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010871.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010872.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010873.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010874.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010875.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010876.MOV

in reference to:

"DEP: Airport Stormwater Not Hurting Marshes"
- DEP: Airport Stormwater Not Hurting Marshes — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Morrell Branch Blues

RMA and Ms. Couch are not the bad guys here; DEP has relented to pressures to "get 'er done" despite abject failure of the "green" plan. I took my boat up there Friday, and in fairness I agree the needle marsh is not endangered at this point. Morell Branch, however, will never be the same - it is now a drainage ditch. DEP has relaxed their permit limits so much that water which is distinctly turbid (15 NTU) is now allowed as "natural background" and water at the limits (44 NTU) would be outright muddy. There is also a layer of tan silt coating the bottom and the roots of the marsh. I shot some not-great video clips, available here (they take some time to stream, but they are just a few seconds except "873" which is 2 minutes):

if you know these blackwater creeks, you must agree this discharge is bad. Unfortunately, the standard now is "legal", not doing the right thing.


http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010870.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010871.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010872.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010873.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010874.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010875.MOV

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/MB_031910/P1010876.MOV

in reference to:

"DEP: Airport stormwater not hurting marshes"
- DEP: Airport stormwater not hurting marshes | stormwater, airport, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Study: Airport to spur business

Archiving the lead paras for follow-up on later developments (no RSS feed from NH). Dr. Lasarda holds a very lucrative consulting contract with the airport.

Study: Airport to spur business
By SCARLET SIMS

News Herald Writer 522-5108 | ssims@pcnh.com  
WEST BAY — Airports such as the new Northwest Florida International Beaches Airport will be the anchor for developing a 21st-century metro area, according to a recent study.

Which businesses spring up around airports is the main focus of a Gulf Coast Community College conference to be held April 2.

“We wanted to give the general public the opportunity to see what’s going on,” college continuing education director Debbie Mikolajczyk said. “This is kind of like the first taste. We want the public to have the opportunity to be educated on the new airport.”

The college is sponsoring a conference that is expected to draw 400 or more people. Officials from the St. Joe Co., three chambers of commerce, local economic development boards, Airport Authority members and state officials already plan to attend. Keynote speaker Dr. John Kasarda, Director of Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise and Kenan Distinguished Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, will talk on how best to use the new airport to draw business.

in reference to: Freedom - Panama City, Saturday, March 13, 2010 - ActivePaper Daily by Olive Software (view on Google Sidewiki)

Tracking Another JOE Claim

Just marking this article - will try to track the 1000-acre development plan by 2013, and how many jobs "created" by JOE.

in reference to:

"St. Joe to concentrate on airport, commercial"
- St. Joe to concentrate on airport, commercial | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New York Times has Higher Standards

The New York Times reported on New ECP in their March 10 Real Estate section.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/10/realestate/commercial/10airport.html?dbk

The Times does not allow reporters to take paid "media tours" so the result is bit more balanced. One News Herald commenter said:

"Pretty fair. Gives both sides."

I kinda thought they agreed with me; from the NYT article:

"it is perhaps more of a real estate project than an effort to address a pressing transportation problem"

Believe me, in Florida, it's always a land deal.

NYT did quote me:
“It’s been oversold, underdesigned, undermanaged and now botched as a construction project,” said Mr. Hodges, who lives in Bay County. “They’ve got layers of construction experts who have not been able to deliver on what layers of planning experts promised.”

To be fair, they quoted others too. You decide:

Britt Greene, St. Joe:
“Silicon Valley at one point was out in the middle of nowhere, We think we can do the same.”
“Tourism will grow as a result of Southwest connecting us to the rest of the nation,” he said. “Our new dominant strategy is economic development and job growth.”

Bob Montgomery, Southwest:
“Our job, and our challenge, is to build a market — a market that heretofore has not existed,”

Ben Longstreth, Natural Resources Defense Council:
“Unfortunately, a lot of what we were concerned about has come to pass,” Filling all these wetlands we thought and continue to think really jeopardizes the health of the ecosystem in West Bay — for an airport that was entirely unnecessary.”
“What we had wanted them to do was create a written document where they legally put the land in a conservation trust though an easement,” “They also could give it to an entity like the Nature Conservancy, but none of that has been done. It’s simply protected by the creation of a county plan that could be changed at any point.”

And finally Randy Curtis:
“Once the airport is completed and constructed, you’ll actually have a net environmental improvement in the area,”

in reference to:

"The St. Joe Company is working to widen the profile of the new airport and the entire West Bay Sector Plan by hosting several media tours for industry writers, including one today."
- TDC, St. Joe Bringing Media to New Airport — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

News Herald Forum on NYTimes Article

"Pretty fair. Gives both sides."

I kinda thought they agreed with me; from the article:

"it is perhaps more of a real estate project than an effort to address a pressing transportation problem"

Believe me, in Florida, it's always a land deal.

NYT did quote me:
“It’s been oversold, underdesigned, undermanaged and now botched as a construction project,” said Mr. Hodges, who lives in Bay County. “They’ve got layers of construction experts who have not been able to deliver on what layers of planning experts promised.”

To be fair, they quoted others too. You decide:

Britt Greene, St. Joe:
“Silicon Valley at one point was out in the middle of nowhere, We think we can do the same.”
“Tourism will grow as a result of Southwest connecting us to the rest of the nation,” he said. “Our new dominant strategy is economic development and job growth.”

Bob Montgomery, Southwest:
“Our job, and our challenge, is to build a market — a market that heretofore has not existed,”

Ben Longstreth, Natural Resources Defense Council:
“Unfortunately, a lot of what we were concerned about has come to pass,” Filling all these wetlands we thought and continue to think really jeopardizes the health of the ecosystem in West Bay — for an airport that was entirely unnecessary.”
“What we had wanted them to do was create a written document where they legally put the land in a conservation trust though an easement,” “They also could give it to an entity like the Nature Conservancy, but none of that has been done. It’s simply protected by the creation of a county plan that could be changed at any point.”

And finally Randy Curtis:
“Once the airport is completed and constructed, you’ll actually have a net environmental improvement in the area,”

80 days to make it happen, Randy.

in reference to:

"New York Times"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

New York Times: It's (perhaps) a Land Deal

The New York Times almost agrees with me:

"it is perhaps more of a real estate project than an effort to address a pressing transportation problem"

In Florida, it's always a land deal.

Susan Stellin did quote me:

Among the most vocal of those skeptics is Don Hodges, a retiree who worked in airport development for Delta for decades and describes himself as “not an opponent, but certainly a vocal critic” of the way the new airport has been handled.

“It’s been oversold, underdesigned, undermanaged and now botched as a construction project,” said Mr. Hodges, who lives in Bay County. “They’ve got layers of construction experts who have not been able to deliver on what layers of planning experts promised.”

in reference to: Square Feet - New Airport, Northwest Florida Beaches International, to Open - NYTimes.com (view on Google Sidewiki)

Track the Plan

Sounds like a plan. Lets archive the article and check the progress in 2012.

in reference to:

"St. Joe Targets Industries to Recuit to West Bay"
- St. Joe Targets Industries to Recuit to West Bay — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

JOE's Plan for 2012

Kevin Johnson on the merits of West Bay. Sounds like a plan - lets archive the article and check the scorecard in 2012.

in reference to: St. Joe reveals timetable on West Bay, gears up marketing | timetable, bay, west - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Post Activity Reports Online

I honestly don't know how well Southwest will do, but the airport is notorious for NOT publishing traffic statistics etc. online. Randy could do a great service by publishing traffic and fare statistics for ECP monthly, so we would not have to attend the board meetings for an activity report.

in reference to:

"Southwest Competition Already Reducing Airfares by NewPFN on March 2, 2010"
- Southwest Competition Already Reducing Airfares — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Post Activity Reports Online

I honestly don't know how well Southwest will do, but the airport is notorious for NOT publishing traffic statistics etc. online. Randy could do a great service by publishing traffic and fare statistics for ECP monthly, so we would not have to attend the board meetings for an activity report.

in reference to: Delta already has responded to competition - LETTERS TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

For the Record

I honestly don't know how well SW will do, but I'm posting this to have a link back someday.

daveeaux wrote:
SW airlines will come in and be very successful. This will bring industry to our town (not just tourism). This will bring younger people. This will silence the old timers in this little town for good. sorry old people.

in reference to:

"SW airlines will come in and be very successful. This will bring industry to our town (not just tourism). This will bring younger people. This will silence the old timers in this little town for good. sorry old people."
- Delta already has responded to competition - LETTERS TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

More - FAA Standards

I personally agree PFN is also exposed to wildlife hazards, but as FAA said about many "comparable" capabilities, they try to IMPROVE hazards with new projects by furnishing standards. The wildlife hazard specs are "strongly recommended". The airport was designed to these specs but it appears it will not comply. The ponds in the crosswind runway area cannot possibly dry out in 48 hours without massive fill that has not been done.

in reference to: Birds, wetlands will always plague airport - LETTER TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

FAA on New Storm Water Controls

here's what FAA thinks:

b. New storm water management facilities. The FAA strongly recommends that off-
airport storm water management systems located within the separations identified in
Sections 1-2 through 1-4 be designed and operated so as not to create above-
ground standing water. Stormwater detention ponds should be designed,
engineered, constructed, and maintained for a maximum 48–hour detention period
after the design storm and remain completely dry between storms.

in reference to: Birds, wetlands will always plague airport - LETTER TO THE EDITOR - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Measuring Turbidity

bennett,
Here's a simple guide to turbidity measurement:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/Turbidity-Myre_Shaw.pdf

The Baywatch folks take samples back to a lab instrument that is much more accurate, but the measurement is still "how much light penetrates the sample". It does not discriminate silt vs organics but repetitive historic samples correlate with rainfall events, seasons, etc. These spikes into 200+ NTU have only occurred since airport construction.

DEP is now ordering NTU measurements at some outfalls daily or even every 8 hours - these are locations at the project boundary so there is no confusion about the source. All measurements cited by DEP in the Consent Orders were taken at these locations.
here's a key map to the locations:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3098609/PC%20Airport%20sample%20location%20map..jpg

in reference to: Airport should hug environmentalists, not ‘dis' them - PAT RICE - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

UPDATE Traffic Post

There will actually be 10 mainline planes and 6 regionals for 1700 departing seats per day.

75% load factor on that is 1275 sales per day, TRIPLE last years traffic. They are setting a tall bar.

in reference to: Delta will add larger planes at new airport | airport, new, delta - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Traffic Check

Time for a capacity check - if I'm counting right, we will have six mainline and six regional planes departing every day, about 1140 seats per day. Last year Delta sold 423 hi-fare seats out of 600 per day offered. The fares look to be 30-40% less, so what will the sales be? Each airline needs to sell about 75% to break even, or 855 total. (SW can actually sell only 40% and get 35% reimbursed from St Joe). Its an interesting problem for both - no volume increase (423 of 1140) is 37%, obviously too low, but what is a realistic number? I would guess 50% increase or 635 per day, 55% load factor. A loser of about $16,000 per day each for Delta and St Joe, break even for SW. St Joe's $32M will last 5 years at this rate, so it's a question of how long Delta wants to bleed.

A doubling of traffic makes everybody well, and Delta could help by raising fares at VPS to drive more to ECP. The game will play out in Dallas, Atlanta, and Jacksonville, but Bay county passengers can't lose for now.

in reference to: Delta will add larger planes at new airport | airport, new, delta - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

School Taxes

I'm no expert on school districts, but I'd be very surprised if the county commission can restrict their levying of property taxes. Most "special districts" have their own enabling laws as political subdivisions - just like cities/counties, and those with elected boards can usually levy property taxes. Sales taxes are different and require a referendum. This is the same idea that has county commissions and the legislature running scared on Amendment 4 "Hometown Democracy" - THEY DON'T LIKE BINDING REFERENDA. Somebody (lawyer?) help me here...

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Dueling with a Straw Man

bennett,

We don't conclude "all" or "100%" from ECP - you are changing the subject to a straw-man that is not the question.

At the forum last week, Baywatch presented linear studies of the creek/trib turbidity at various positions and times since 1995, using observations with instruments calibrated to control samples. There is no question that the general quality is lower and these spikes have only occurred since construction started. There are other sources, and the 388 project is significant, but nowhere near the scale of the airport releases. DEP has also documented these releases from on-site inspections using only airport discharges, and cited them in two Consent Orders the airport has signed (the second because of violating the first). Do you think they would sign these orders if they had a defense? Nobody is making this up or only speculating from eyeballing. DEP is now relaxing the permits to give them a shot at compliance before opening day. (Or, if you prefer, a shot at completing the project by opening day.) Based on today's pictures, it isn't going too well.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Somebody Saw it Coming in 2002

bugger said,
"I can't believe nobody saw something like this coming."


I saw it coming and told them this in written comments - December 2002:

1. An airport is a very long-life development whose siting, design, and environmental mitigation strategy should provide for
many years into the future. Active airfields in this region date from the early 1940’s, already 60 years old and with indefinite
remaining life. It is appropriate to plan a permanent facility with at least 100 years of service life.

2. The physical scope of the project to be assessed should include: the airport fully built out (two parallel runways, one
crosswind runway, passenger terminal sized to accommodate the passenger traffic implied by two parallel runways, fuel,
cargo and general aviation facilities sized for full build-out, on-site and off-site stormwater treatment structures sized for full
build-out) and any cumulative impacts triggered by the presence of a hub airport (on-airport industries, off-airport industrial
and distribution facilities, commercial facilities, residential developments, roads, streets, utility corridors, and related
stormwater treatment structures). If the scope is reduced, the Airport Layout Plan (ALP) showing the ultimate planned buildout
should be permanently reduced accordingly, to assure that the environmental design is compatible with the ultimate
planned build-out. All the stormwater mitigation structures may not need to be built to ultimate capacity in the first phase, but
the environmental analysis should establish the requirements for building to full capacity.

3. Analysis of the ambient environment should follow the best science available, based on field observations in addition to
archived data, because the archived data is understood to be incomplete in the project area.

4. Seasonal studies of fresh water quality and flow from the site to West Bay should be done, and should cover an interval long
enough to recognize effects of the prolonged drought now in progress.

5. The design of the airport-plus-cumulative-impacts stormwater runoff treatment structures should produce effluent with
quality equal to or better than the ambient fresh water observed in the seasonal studies per Item (4.)

6. Construction should be phased and scheduled to avoid exposing more bare earth than the
stormwater runoff control structures and methods in place can treat to pre-construction
ambient water quality.

7. Temporary construction facilities such as mobile offices, employee parking, mobilization
and material laydown/storage areas should be designed and operated to treat stormwater
runoff to pre-construction ambient water quality.

8. In any event, including hurricane rainfall conditions, silt transport to Burnt Mill Creek and/or Crooked Creek and their tributaries in excess of pre-construction ambient conditions,
including hurricane rainfall conditions, should not occur during construction.

The permits say the same thing, but little effort was made to comply during construction until the lid blew off in April 2009.

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Thanks Caz

Thanks for speaking up, Caz.  The Southwest deal is a real winner but it's time to retire the "Preservation Forever" theme - if it was ever sincere, it's now out of reach and may threaten opening on time.  The only way to cure this is a phased stabilization from north to south (high to low) AND IT CAN'T BE DONE BY MAY 23.  It will get harder after operations begin and access to the site is secured.  They really have no choice but to "weather (pun here?) a storm of negative publicity".  And pay through the nose in fines and corrective action.  The consensus at the forum was that the fines should go toward actually buying some buffer lands for the public, rather than funding some showboating project that does nothing for West Bay.

The creeks are muddy again today:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/Creeks388_022210?h=201255

More of my thoughts are over at the "forums-general topics-airport boondoggle" forum:

http://www.newsherald.com/share/forums/?plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3acf3288d4-9543-4d98-814a-38dfefa2d8c8Forum%3a38f41715-79d4-418d-b9f6-72c495b24492Discussion%3abb3ae6a7-9113-4dae-9ece-e6daec0c88db&plckCurrentPage=63

or at http://donhodges.blogspot.com

Mr. Tannehill would probably like a do-over on the "Baywatch is in it for the money" quote.  Baywatch has been scrupulously neutral on the issues here and on the science.  The data at the forum was unequivocal: the creeks are worse off downstream of the airport, both geographically and historically.

The creeks at Hwy 388 - Feb 22 2010

Crooked Creek taking the worst hit today, but Burnt Mill probably over discharge limits.


http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/Creeks388_022210?h=201255

in reference to:

"Crooked Creek taking the worst hit today, but Burnt Mill probably over discharge limits.http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/Creeks388_022210?h=201255"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

THE Beach

Aster,
Since you brought it up, it appears something IS happening at the beach - Pier Park in particular is holding up well through a tough winter, and the "all in" commitment to Spring Break seems to be moderating. I have always felt the west end of the county has great potential on its own, and that is a primary reason I resisted sacrificing the present airport for less money than it took for Finch to ruin the creeks. A fully developed airport of any size is a unique resource that is almost impossible to obtain, and this city, county and authority just threw one away for chump change. Of course the whole Partners in Progress scam and the redev of an even more harmful project is icing on the cake. Losing the airport, the F-15, and maybe Sallie Mae will be very difficult for the eastern county to absorb. At least until St Joe is ready to do its number on East Bay. Now there's a pleasant thought...

in reference to: The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Time and Budget

It depends on which schedule and budget is in use. It was supposed to open in 2006, and pick your budget:
$89 Million
$129M
$206M
$272M
$335M
$318M

When the $129M was announced, I called the business editor of the News Herald and told him it would be at least $250M and he could file that away. I had no idea I would be the low bidder.

in reference to: Chairman Tannehill: ‘Project remains on time and on budget’ — The New ECP (view on Google Sidewiki)

Survivor Bias

aster,
You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive.

About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one.


asterisque wrote:
When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)
In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county.

Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds.

in reference to:

"aster,You missed one thing - the winners write history. All the "could have beens" are never recorded - it has a name in sociology: "survivor bias". Its how a guy like Bill Gates is famous and nobody knows the name of the guy he bought the code from. Also how a paid shill can stand up and tell a bald lie on TV - because she is in the narrative that will survive. About the only thing that interrupts the "inevitable" is a "black swan", that event so rare it isn't predictable, wherein something works and works until one day it doesn't any more - like Rep. Sansom, an earthquake, and even a muddy flood where there never was one. 1/26/2010 10:31 AM CST on newsherald.com Recommend (3) Report Abuse Permalink asterisque wrote: When someone writes a book about this airport project, they will conclude that there was no demonstrated need for this airport at this time. There was no market need, and the RSA could have been addressed in a number of other ways, such as the use of EMAS, all much cheaper than moving the airport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_safety_area (click on adobe file in 1st ref. cited)In 2007, 30% of the airports in the US were not compliant with the newer rules, but FAA is not having any of them build new airports. The difference here was the economic interests of the few, and dreams of many others of using the new airport as an economic engine for the county. Those few, however, were very politically powerful. They had connections going all the way to the White House, by currying influence, economic connections, working on campaigns and making big donations. So the right people were in office to send the message down to their agencies to approve a project that would typically have been laughed out of their inbox—-Gov. Jeb Bush for the state, and Pres. GW Bush for the federal agencies, and of course the money-getters in the legislatures. That’s what the hurry was all about. Those conditions were not going to stay in place forever, and as people leave office, they could have been replaced by others not as friendly to the project--or wasting public funds."
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Calm Discussion

Carlmbennett,
first, thanks for the calm discussion!

I agree the project is progressing and all the prior disputes are moot. That does not relieve the project team of its obligations, legal and ethical, to do what they proposed and agreed to do, and further agreed some more under enforcement. So far it is not happening. I think that falls under your "execution of the West Bay Sector Plan in a balanced manner that protects the West Bay estuarine environment" - which is the subject of this News Herald article.


Over and out...

in reference to:

"Carlmbennett,first, thanks for the calm discussion!I agree the project is progressing and all the prior disputes are moot. That does not relieve the project team of its obligations, legal and ethical, to do what they proposed and agreed to do, and further agreed some more under enforcement. So far it is not happening. I think that falls under your "execution of the West Bay Sector Plan in a balanced manner that protects the West Bay estuarine environment" - which is the subject of this News Herald article. Over and out..."
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Old Timers

carlmbennett,
I too am a 3rd generation old-timer, born here in 1938, and I started into this just about where you are ("what's the big deal?"), but the deeper I looked the stranger it got, especially since I know a bit about airports and also spend a fair amount of time on the bay. I would count at least 3 of the airport board members as friends, but they they have allowed corporate welfare politics and high-powered consultants to create a mess if not an enviro crisis that was totally unnecessary. If they get this mysterious drainage system to work, we may eventually see the watershed recover. If not,they have set in motion the decline of the very natural resources that are attractive to visitors (and by extension to Southwest Airlines and those mythic clean job industries). The world is full of attractive destinations and nobody knows which specific insult will be the one that kills the golden goose, but our "community leaders" seem determined to find the limit.
Court testimony says this project is perhaps the last large scale frontal assault on the Gulf Coast wetland environment, and the precedent it sets almost guarantees it will get worse. Someday people will look at Bay County and say "Wow! How did did such a beautiful place stay so beautiful?" OR "How did such a beautiful place (like Tampa Bay, the Everglades, the St Johns River, the Apalachicola River) become THIS, we have to clean it up"! I don't want to be on the wrong side of that choice, so I pay attention to what is said vs. done, photograph the creeks, call DEP and FAA when things look strange, and record the outcomes vs. the claims. As someone said, "The facts are friendly"; I will let the facts speak for themselves.

"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to: Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Censorship

f you want permanent posts, crosspost to a sidewiki - its a Google svc that places a post alongside the web page. You have to join sidewiki to read them there but they are also posted to a Blogger blog where they are linked back to the page. Here's mine:
http://donhodges.blogspot.com/

Hope this stays up - the only post I ever had deleted was about sidewiki. Its to an editor like a wooden cross to vampire, since IT CAN'T BE EDITED.

UPDATE: THIS POST WAS  DELETED FROM THE NEWS HERALD COMMENTS.
in reference to:

"f you want permanent posts, crosspost to a sidewiki - its a Google svc that places a post alongside the web page.  You have to join sidewiki to read them there but they are also posted to a Blogger blog where they are linked back to the page.  Here's mine:http://donhodges.blogspot.com/Hope this stays up - the only post I ever had deleted was about sidewiki.  Its to an editor like a wooden cross to vampire, since IT CAN'T BE EDITED."
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

LaGuardia was also built in a swamp

"NYC locals tell me LaGuardia was also built in a swamp."

Now THAT's encouraging. LaGuardia is also about the airport PFN could have been expanded to without complications, and it has 21 million passengers a year.

Both facts moot now, but there has been a lot of abuse of the truth. Now they say they will keep PFN open while they finish ECP, a 2-airport plan they swore several times could not be done. If ECP had started out as minimum-footprint 1-runway, the enviro problems would have been minimized. Now we get ANOTHER hyper-development at the PFN site.
1/23/2010 5:23 PM CST

in reference to:

""NYC locals tell me LaGuardia was also built in a swamp."Now THAT's encouraging. LaGuardia is also about the airport PFN could have been expanded to without complications, and it has 21 million passengers a year.Both facts moot now, but there has been a lot of abuse of the truth. Now they say they will keep PFN open while they finish ECP, a 2-airport plan they swore several times could not be done. If ECP had started out as minimum-footprint 1-runway, the enviro problems would have been minimized. Now we get ANOTHER hyper-development at the PFN site. 1/23/2010 5:23 PM CST"
- Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Not an Act of God

This is not an act of God, it is failing to do rudimentary civil engineering and heavy construction practices. The only way to control storm water on a site this big is to subdivide it and phase the construction, establishing drainage and turf in manageable tracts. Once 1300 acres were cleared and worked without immediately restoring some grass, it got out of control. The amount of silt in Burnt Mill Creek last April and this week is nothing like the localized runoff from a small site - it is massive on a watershed scale. There is also 10 miles of bare shoulders on CR388 due to the widening project; the surface water in the north ditches, which flows from the wetlands, is clear. In the south ditches, it is silt. The state and county regulations are not severe and they depend on the professionals involved to use the best practices. Where this is done, huge silt blow-outs don't happen. The airport has already signed two consent orders admitting these violations to DEP, it is not just a bunch of kibitzers with opinions.

Our bay system is self-contained; we have no Atlanta or Pittsburg upstream to spoil it. If it is ruined, we ruined it. If it is protected by "state-of-the-art" environmental technology, we protected it.

For now, I believe my lying eyes and I have photos to prove it - "we" are trashing these creeks.

Photos from CR388 and the creeks, Thursday Jan. 21:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

Aerial Photos of ECP project, Friday Jan. 22:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/ECPJan22_10?h=0305cd

in reference to: Airport suffers stormwater breach | west, airport, bay - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Comment on News Herald Story 1-21-10

carl,

I took a series of pictures along 388 yesterday, and I can assure you the broad area drainage is strikingly cleaner than the Morrell Branch drainage corridor from ECP site to Burnt Mill - THERE IS NO DOUBT THE SILTATION OF BURNT MILL CREEK IS FROM FAILURES OF THE ECP SITE DRAINAGE. We will probably have aerial pictures to confirm this today, and DEP is also on site compiling conditions.

I think the airport board and St Joe can be proud of their Southwest Airlines recruitment, but they are botching their construction project. Also, the 10 miles of widening CR388 has laid bare muddy shoulders eroding south toward West Bay and St Joe's RiverCamps. When the impact starts affecting land values, they will both wake up -about 20 years too late.

A few of my pictures are at:

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

in reference to:

"carl,I took a series of pictures along 388 yesterday, and I can assure you the broad area drainage is strikingly cleaner than the Morrell Branch drainage corridor from ECP site to Burnt Mill - THERE IS NO DOUBT THE SILTATION OF BURNT MILL CREEK IS FROM FAILURES OF THE ECP SITE DRAINAGE. We will probably have aerial pictures to confirm this today, and DEP is also on site compiling conditions.I think the airport board and St Joe can be proud of their Southwest Airlines recruitment, but they are botching their construction project. Also, the 10 miles of widening CR388 has laid bare muddy shoulders eroding south toward West Bay and St Joe's RiverCamps. When the impact starts affecting land values, they will both wake up -about 20 years too late.A few of my pictures are at:http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc"
- Airport officials fight stormwater | west, bay, florida - News - The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)

Jan 21 - Another Storm Water Blowout

It appears we are having another April 2009-scale blowout to Burnt Mill creek. This photo, taken today, is looking southeastward from the CR 388 bridge. Mud jello. More fines.
Posted by asterisque


Here's a link to a few more photos along CR388. The road widening has 10 miles of muddy shoulders eroding to the south, in addition to the airport blowout. Note the intracoastal waterway is a bit colored but not "chocolate milk." Also a couple of signposts along the way...

http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc

"No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___" -The Black Swan

My other blogs :
http://donhodges.blogspot.com (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)
http://www.ecoastlife.com (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)
http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/ (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)

in reference to:

"It appears we are having another April 2009-scale blowout to Burnt Mill creek.  This photo, taken today, is looking southeastward from the CR 388 bridge.   Mud jello.  More fines.Posted by asterisqueHere's a link to a few more photos along CR388.  The road widening has 10 miles of muddy shoulders eroding to the south, in addition to the airport blowout.  Note the intracoastal waterway is a bit colored but not "chocolate milk."  Also a couple of signposts along the way...http://www.dropbox.com/gallery/3098609/1/CR388Jan21_09?h=4ba8bc "No evidence of __" is not the same as "Evidence of no ___"  -The Black SwanMy other blogs : http://donhodges.blogspot.com            (BayBlogger - My Sidewiki Posts)http://www.ecoastlife.com                      (ECoastLife - NW FL Opinion)http://www.ecoastlife.com/wordpress/  (BayBlog - NW FL in WordPress)"
- The News Herald (view on Google Sidewiki)